Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (56%). 5 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Celtics vs. Magic: O/U 224.5
5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Over (100%) · Over at 45¢ · $194 held · ends Nov 1
⚠️
Avoid
Over
5
Over 100%
$194.5
-$4.77
46¢ → 44.5¢
-3% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
AvoidOver at 45%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 5 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors Under 56%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 83%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 83% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 VeryLucky888CTR | Overavg 46¢ | $140.98 | $135.34 | -$4.59 | 58% 42597-30998 (73595) |
HE HerdoniaCTR<$100 | Overavg 46¢ | $24.87 | $24.87 | +$0 | 54% 3402-2948 (6350) |
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100 | Overavg 46.3¢ | $24.1 | $23.92 | -$0.18 | 57% 29194-21587 (50781) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Overavg 46¢ | $8.07 | $8.07 | -$0 | 56% 14151-10960 (25111) |
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100 | Overavg 46¢ | $2.3 | $2.3 | +$0 | 52% 7473-6774 (14247) |
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$140.98
Value
$135.34
PnL
-$4.59
Record
58%
42597-30998 (73595)
Invested
$24.87
Value
$24.87
PnL
+$0
Record
54%
3402-2948 (6350)
Invested
$24.1
Value
$23.92
PnL
-$0.18
Record
57%
29194-21587 (50781)
Invested
$8.07
Value
$8.07
PnL
-$0
Record
56%
14151-10960 (25111)
Invested
$2.3
Value
$2.3
PnL
+$0
Record
52%
7473-6774 (14247)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
44.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.