Celtics vs. Magic: O/U 222.5

5 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Under (63%) · Under at 53¢ · $13K held · ends Nov 1

Over48¢Under52¢Ends Sun, Nov 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 63%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$12.8K

Combined PnL

$162.02

Smart Money Entry

50.6¢ → 52.5¢

+4% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 53%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

5 of 8 top traders (63%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over48%

Under53%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under5 traders

Total Value$7.9K

Total Shares12,612

Combined PnL+$190.87

Over3 traders

Total Value$3.4K

Total Shares7,071

Combined PnL-$28.85

Under — 63%Over — 37%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazard	Underavg 50.4¢	$6.8K	$7.0K	+$203.21	54% 17338-14559 (31897)
MA MAGATheeStallionCTR	Overavg 49¢	$2.0K	$2.0K	-$40.81	57% 261-193 (454)
FO forecastication4CTR	Overavg 47.6¢	$1.4K	$1.4K	+$11.98	49% 1197-1225 (2422)
SN SnakeBallARB<$100	Underavg 52¢	$773.24	$744.46	-$28.78	50% 33839-33425 (67264)
└ Under leg	Underavg 52¢	$403.26	$399.38	-$3.88
└ Over leg	Overavg 52¢	$369.98	$345.08	-$24.9
HE HerdoniaARB<$100	Underavg 50.8¢	$730.16	$737.56	+$7.39	54% 3403-2950 (6353)
└ Under leg	Underavg 50.8¢	$538	$551.14	+$13.13
└ Over leg	Overavg 49.5¢	$192.16	$186.42	-$5.74
0X 0x443BCCe588E26763987e9Ae44b6b7845F09Fe8bB-1769536380439	Underavg 52¢	$524.68	$514.59	-$10.09	49% 353-369 (722)
VeryLucky888	Underavg 50.8¢	$605.94	$260	-$2.06	58% 42674-31054 (73728)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Underavg 50.8¢	$75.57	$75.95	+$0.38	57% 29226-21613 (50839)
GH ghorrockARB<$100	Overavg 48¢	$45.39	$46.02	+$0.63	56% 14224-11030 (25254)
└ Over leg	Overavg 48¢	$23.39	$23.39	-$0
└ Under leg	Underavg 50.6¢	$22	$22.63	+$0.63
LU LuckyLoo<$100	Underavg 52¢	$29.22	$28.65	-$0.56	49% 13013-13570 (26583)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Overavg 48¢	$2.4	$2.38	-$0.02	52% 7499-6786 (14285)

HomeRunHazard

Under

Invested

$6,827.15

Value

$7.0K

PnL

+$203.21

Record

54%

17338-14559 (31897)

MAGATheeStallionCTR

Over

Invested

$1,999.69

Value

$2.0K

PnL

-$40.81

Record

57%

261-193 (454)

forecastication4CTR

Over

Invested

$1,420.93

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$11.98

Record

49%

1197-1225 (2422)

SnakeBallARB<$100

Under

Invested

$773.24

Value

$744.46

PnL

-$28.78

Record

50%

33839-33425 (67264)

Both legs:

Under$403.2652¢-$3.88

Over$369.9852¢-$24.9

HerdoniaARB<$100

Under

Invested

$730.16

Value

$737.56

PnL

+$7.39

Record

54%

3403-2950 (6353)

Both legs:

Under$53850.8¢+$13.13

Over$192.1649.5¢-$5.74

0x443BCCe588E26763987e9Ae44b6b7845F09Fe8bB-1769536380439

Under

Invested

$524.68

Value

$514.59

PnL

-$10.09

Record

49%

353-369 (722)

VeryLucky888

Under

Invested

$605.94

Value

$260

PnL

-$2.06

Record

58%

42674-31054 (73728)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Under

Invested

$75.57

Value

$75.95

PnL

+$0.38

Record

57%

29226-21613 (50839)

ghorrockARB<$100

Over

Invested

$45.39

Value

$46.02

PnL

+$0.63

Record

56%

14224-11030 (25254)

Both legs:

Invested

$29.22

Value

$28.65

PnL

-$0.56

Record

49%

13013-13570 (26583)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$2.4

Value

$2.38

PnL

-$0.02

Record

52%

7499-6786 (14285)

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 53%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Under

5 of 8 top traders (63%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance54.7%

52.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$82.67

Max Loss

-$100.00

182.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.