Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (53%). 6 of 10 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Celtics vs. Magic: O/U 221.5

6 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Under (60%) · Under at 48¢ · $9K held · ends Nov 1

Over53¢Under47¢Ends Sun, Nov 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 60%

Total Value

$9.4K

Combined PnL

$359.42

Smart Money Entry

47.6¢ → 47.5¢

+0% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 48%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

6 of 10 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors Over 53%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over53%

Under48%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over4 traders

Total Value$4.5K

Total Shares7,250

Combined PnL+$151.53

Under6 traders

Total Value$4.9K

Total Shares9,761

Combined PnL+$207.9

Over — 40%Under — 60%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazard	Overavg 51.2¢	$4.2K	$4.3K	+$143.12	54% 17338-14559 (31897)
HI hi774cCTR	Underavg 46¢	$1.9K	$2.1K	+$165.22	52% 4818-4536 (9354)
FO Forecastication2CTR	Underavg 49¢	$1.8K	$1.8K	+$36.34	50% 7122-7165 (14287)
LU LuckyLooCTR	Underavg 49¢	$640.92	$654	+$13.08	49% 13013-13570 (26583)
HE Herdonia	Overavg 51.3¢	$199.1	$206.91	+$7.8	54% 3403-2950 (6353)
UP UpTheBluesCTR	Underavg 48¢	$191.04	$185.07	-$5.97	59% 46883-33151 (80034)
VeryLucky888CTR	Underavg 46¢	$386.25	$125	+$0.08	58% 42674-31054 (73728)
GH ghorrock<$100	Overavg 50.6¢	$44.61	$32.99	+$0.8	56% 14224-11030 (25254)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Underavg 48¢	$28.15	$27.63	-$0.85	57% 29226-21613 (50839)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Overavg 52¢	$5.2	$5	-$0.2	52% 7499-6786 (14285)

HomeRunHazard

Over

Invested

$4,157.95

Value

$4.3K

PnL

+$143.12

Record

54%

17338-14559 (31897)

hi774cCTR

Under

Invested

$1,900

Value

$2.1K

PnL

+$165.22

Record

52%

4818-4536 (9354)

Forecastication2CTR

Under

Invested

$1,780.66

Value

$1.8K

PnL

+$36.34

Record

50%

7122-7165 (14287)

LuckyLooCTR

Under

Invested

$640.92

Value

$654

PnL

+$13.08

Record

49%

13013-13570 (26583)

Herdonia

Over

Invested

$199.1

Value

$206.91

PnL

+$7.8

Record

54%

3403-2950 (6353)

UpTheBluesCTR

Under

Invested

$191.04

Value

$185.07

PnL

-$5.97

Record

59%

46883-33151 (80034)

VeryLucky888CTR

Under

Invested

$386.25

Value

$125

PnL

+$0.08

Record

58%

42674-31054 (73728)

ghorrock<$100

Over

Invested

$44.61

Value

$32.99

PnL

+$0.8

Record

56%

14224-11030 (25254)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$28.15

Value

$27.63

PnL

-$0.85

Record

57%

29226-21613 (50839)

ameisgoat11<$100

Over

Invested

$5.2

Value

PnL

-$0.2

Record

52%

7499-6786 (14285)

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 48%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Under

6 of 10 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors Over 53%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance49.7%

47.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$101.01

Max Loss

-$100.00

201.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.