Celtics vs. Magic: O/U 220.5

2 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold Over (67%) · Over at 51¢ · $4K held · ends Nov 1

Over51¢Under49¢Ends Sun, Nov 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 67%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$4.2K

Combined PnL

-$22.44

Smart Money Entry

54.9¢ → 51¢

-7% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

AvoidOver at 51%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

2 of 3 top traders (67%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over51%

Under49%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over2 traders

Total Value$364.42

Total Shares679

Combined PnL-$25.71

Under1 trader

Total Value$2.68

Total Shares5

Combined PnL+$3.27

Over — 67%Under — 33%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazardARB<$100	Overavg 52.9¢	$3.9K	$3.9K	-$54.05	54% 17338-14559 (31897)
└ Over leg	Overavg 52.9¢	$3.1K	$3.0K	-$113.19
└ Under leg	Underavg 45.6¢	$787.2	$846.34	+$59.14
SU SunlineTicker	Overavg 55¢	$354.75	$328.95	-$25.8	62% 4201-2575 (6776)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Overavg 54¢	$35.38	$35.47	+$0.09	57% 29226-21613 (50839)
VeryLucky888CTR	Underavg 45¢	$144.32	$2.68	+$3.27	58% 42674-31054 (73728)

HomeRunHazardARB<$100

Over

Invested

$3,920.81

Value

$3.9K

PnL

-$54.05

Record

54%

17338-14559 (31897)

Both legs:

Over$3,133.6152.9¢-$113.19

Under$787.245.6¢+$59.14

SunlineTicker

Over

Invested

$354.75

Value

$328.95

PnL

-$25.8

Record

62%

4201-2575 (6776)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Over

Invested

$35.38

Value

$35.47

PnL

+$0.09

Record

57%

29226-21613 (50839)

VeryLucky888CTR

Under

Invested

$144.32

Value

$2.68

PnL

+$3.27

Record

58%

42674-31054 (73728)

Research grade

AvoidOver at 51%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Over

2 of 3 top traders (67%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance53.2%

51.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$87.80

Max Loss

-$100.00

187.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.