Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Magic, while the market favors Celtics (52%). 4 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Spread: Celtics (-7.5)
4 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Magic (57%) · Magic at 49¢ · $4K held · ends Nov 1
⚠️
Avoid
Magic
7
Magic 57%
$3.8K
-$45.17
51.6¢ → 48.5¢
-6% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
AvoidMagic at 49%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 7 top traders (57%)Underdog side (market favors Celtics 52%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 98%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
50% of non-arb traders are on Magic. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SU SunlineTickerCTR | Magicavg 53¢ | $1.5K | $1.4K | -$56.36 | 62% 4201-2576 (6777) |
LZ lzh1 | Celticsavg 47¢ | $1.2K | $1.2K | +$25.68 | 43% 472-634 (1106) |
HE HerdoniaCTR | Magicavg 49.1¢ | $790.75 | $781.92 | -$8.83 | 54% 3405-2950 (6355) |
HO HomeRunHazardCTR | Magicavg 52¢ | $165.89 | $159.66 | -$6.23 | 54% 17338-14559 (31897) |
 RN1 | Celticsavg 47¢ | $117.5 | $120 | +$1.25 | 54% 57187-49444 (106631) |
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100 | Magicavg 50.9¢ | $21.38 | $20.37 | -$1.01 | 57% 29247-21632 (50879) |
A8 a8999<$100 | Celticsavg 48¢ | $11.41 | $2.91 | +$0.32 | 44% 1105-1407 (2512) |
Invested
$1,493.54
Value
$1.4K
PnL
-$56.36
Record
62%
4201-2576 (6777)
Invested
$1,206.96
Value
$1.2K
PnL
+$25.68
Record
43%
472-634 (1106)
Invested
$790.75
Value
$781.92
PnL
-$8.83
Record
54%
3405-2950 (6355)
Invested
$165.89
Value
$159.66
PnL
-$6.23
Record
54%
17338-14559 (31897)
RN1Invested
$117.5
Value
$120
PnL
+$1.25
Record
54%
57187-49444 (106631)
Invested
$21.38
Value
$20.37
PnL
-$1.01
Record
57%
29247-21632 (50879)
Invested
$11.41
Value
$2.91
PnL
+$0.32
Record
44%
1105-1407 (2512)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
48.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.