Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Magic, while the market favors Celtics (56%). 3 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Spread: Celtics (-5.5)
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Magic (60%) · Magic at 45¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 1
⚠️
Avoid
Magic
5
Magic 60%
$1.9K
-$14.16
45¢ → 44.5¢
-1% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
AvoidMagic at 45%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors Celtics 56%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
QW QWUERHAIUKSJNFSNCF | Celticsavg 55¢ | $770 | $763 | -$7 | 54% 399-345 (744) |
HO HomeRunHazardCTR | Magicavg 45.2¢ | $697.28 | $679.82 | -$9.94 | 54% 17338-14559 (31897) |
 VeryLucky888CTR | Magicavg 44.5¢ | $217.5 | $220 | +$2.5 | 58% 42700-31074 (73774) |
HE HerdoniaCTR | Magicavg 44.8¢ | $199.41 | $197.06 | -$0.44 | 54% 3403-2950 (6353) |
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100 | Celticsavg 53.5¢ | $19.26 | $19.98 | +$0.72 | 57% 29237-21622 (50859) |
Invested
$770
Value
$763
PnL
-$7
Record
54%
399-345 (744)
Invested
$697.28
Value
$679.82
PnL
-$9.94
Record
54%
17338-14559 (31897)
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$217.5
Value
$220
PnL
+$2.5
Record
58%
42700-31074 (73774)
Invested
$199.41
Value
$197.06
PnL
-$0.44
Record
54%
3403-2950 (6353)
Invested
$19.26
Value
$19.98
PnL
+$0.72
Record
57%
29237-21622 (50859)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
44.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.