Spread: Celtics (-4.5)

4 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Celtics (44%) · Celtics at 64¢ · $14K held · ended Nov 1

Celtics64¢Magic36¢Ended Sun, Nov 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Celtics

Consensus Traders

Celtics 44%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$13.9K

Combined PnL

$186.97

Smart Money Entry

60.9¢ → 63.5¢

+4% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

AvoidCeltics at 64%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Celtics

4 of 9 top traders (44%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Celtics64%

Magic37%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Magic5 traders

Total Value$6.9K

Total Shares16,822

Combined PnL+$230.44

Celtics4 traders

Total Value$6.7K

Total Shares11,160

Combined PnL-$43.47

Magic — 56%Celtics — 44%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	Magicavg 38.1¢	$6.4K	$6.6K	+$219.99	54% 17338-14559 (31897)
AS askilika	Celticsavg 62¢	$6.2K	$6.2K	-$50	50% 205-209 (414)
XY xyz.eww	Celticsavg 50¢	$500.22	$505	+$4.78	58% 14-10 (24)
RN1ARB<$100	Celticsavg 61¢	$250	$250	+$0	54% 57187-49444 (106631)
└ Celtics leg	Celticsavg 61¢	$152.5	$151.25	-$1.25
└ Magic leg	Magicavg 39¢	$97.5	$98.75	+$1.25
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Magicavg 39.4¢	$80.46	$84.66	+$4.2	50% 33888-33462 (67350)
UP UpTheBluesCTR<$100	Magicavg 41¢	$66.83	$69.27	+$2.44	59% 46944-33223 (80167)
QW QWUERHAIUKSJNFSNCF<$100	Celticsavg 58¢	$58	$58.5	+$0.5	54% 399-345 (744)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Magicavg 40¢	$43.97	$45.21	+$1.24	57% 29247-21632 (50879)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100	Magicavg 46.1¢	$35.33	$37.89	+$2.56	48% 1070-1175 (2245)
JU justaluckydude<$100	Celticsavg 56.9¢	$34.15	$35.4	+$1.25	53% 11037-9631 (20668)

HomeRunHazardCTR

Magic

Invested

$6,410.55

Value

$6.6K

PnL

+$219.99

Record

54%

17338-14559 (31897)

askilika

Celtics

Invested

$6,200

Value

$6.2K

PnL

-$50

Record

50%

205-209 (414)

xyz.eww

Celtics

Invested

$500.22

Value

$505

PnL

+$4.78

Record

58%

14-10 (24)

RN1ARB<$100

Celtics

Invested

$250

Value

$250

PnL

+$0

Record

54%

57187-49444 (106631)

Both legs:

Celtics$152.561¢-$1.25

Magic$97.539¢+$1.25

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Magic

Invested

$80.46

Value

$84.66

PnL

+$4.2

Record

50%

33888-33462 (67350)

UpTheBluesCTR<$100

Magic

Invested

$66.83

Value

$69.27

PnL

+$2.44

Record

59%

46944-33223 (80167)

QWUERHAIUKSJNFSNCF<$100

Celtics

Invested

$58

Value

$58.5

PnL

+$0.5

Record

54%

399-345 (744)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Magic

Invested

$43.97

Value

$45.21

PnL

+$1.24

Record

57%

29247-21632 (50879)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100

Magic

Invested

$35.33

Value

$37.89

PnL

+$2.56

Record

48%

1070-1175 (2245)

justaluckydude<$100

Celtics

Invested

$34.15

Value

$35.4

PnL

+$1.25

Record

53%

11037-9631 (20668)

Research grade

AvoidCeltics at 64%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Celtics

4 of 9 top traders (44%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Celtics wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance65.6%

63.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$52.33

Max Loss

-$100.00

152.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.