Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Magic, while the market favors Celtics (66%). 3 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Celtics vs. Magic

3 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Magic (43%) · Magic at 35¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 1

Celtics66¢Magic34¢Ends Sun, Nov 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Magic

Consensus Traders

Magic 43%

Total Value

$1.4K

Combined PnL

-$12.97

Smart Money Entry

33.4¢ → 34.5¢

+3% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

AvoidMagic at 35%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Magic

3 of 7 top traders (43%)Underdog side (market favors Celtics 66%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Celtics66%

Magic35%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Magic3 traders

Total Value$814.87

Total Shares2,468

Combined PnL-$8.15

Celtics4 traders

Total Value$615.77

Total Shares928

Combined PnL-$4.82

Magic — 43%Celtics — 57%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
PE peepeepooppoopCTR	Magicavg 33.3¢	$588.12	$574.83	-$13.28	52% 2042-1864 (3906)
0X 0x4278F7E5CB5f2d68d204d7403270c79CB07e0E92-1762724768941	Celticsavg 67¢	$527.96	$524.02	-$3.94	88% 252-33 (285)
FO Forecastication2CTR	Magicavg 33.7¢	$217.47	$222.87	+$5.4	50% 7049-7061 (14110)
UP UpTheBlues<$100	Celticsavg 66¢	$45.54	$45.2	-$0.34	59% 46230-32531 (78761)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Celticsavg 66.6¢	$26.63	$26.2	-$0.43	58% 28900-21323 (50223)
GH ghorrock<$100	Celticsavg 66¢	$23.81	$20.35	-$0.11	57% 13944-10725 (24669)
RollAwayTheDewCTR<$100	Magicavg 33¢	$17.7	$17.16	-$0.27	53% 407-358 (765)

peepeepooppoopCTR

Magic

Invested

$588.12

Value

$574.83

PnL

-$13.28

Record

52%

2042-1864 (3906)

0x4278F7E5CB5f2d68d204d7403270c79CB07e0E92-1762724768941

Celtics

Invested

$527.96

Value

$524.02

PnL

-$3.94

Record

88%

252-33 (285)

Forecastication2CTR

Magic

Invested

$217.47

Value

$222.87

PnL

+$5.4

Record

50%

7049-7061 (14110)

UpTheBlues<$100

Celtics

Invested

$45.54

Value

$45.2

PnL

-$0.34

Record

59%

46230-32531 (78761)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Celtics

Invested

$26.63

Value

$26.2

PnL

-$0.43

Record

58%

28900-21323 (50223)

ghorrock<$100

Celtics

Invested

$23.81

Value

$20.35

PnL

-$0.11

Record

57%

13944-10725 (24669)

RollAwayTheDewCTR<$100

Magic

Invested

$17.7

Value

$17.16

PnL

-$0.27

Record

53%

407-358 (765)

Research grade

AvoidMagic at 35%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Magic

3 of 7 top traders (43%)Underdog side (market favors Celtics 66%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Magic wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance36.6%

34.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$172.89

Max Loss

-$100.00

272.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.