Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (56%). 5 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Celtics vs. Bucks: O/U 224.5
5 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Over (63%) · Over at 44¢ · $3K held · ends Nov 9
⚠️
Avoid
Over
8
Over 63%
1 arb excluded
$2.8K
-$14.83
44.9¢ → 43.5¢
-3% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
AvoidOver at 44%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 8 top traders (63%)Underdog side (market favors Under 56%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 91%
Freshness
Fresh
4h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
63% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 91% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HI hi774cCTR | Overavg 45¢ | $1.1K | $1.1K | -$24.82 | 46% 5627-6537 (12164) |
HO HomeRunHazardARB<$100 | Underavg 55¢ | $872.92 | $894.44 | +$21.53 | 54% 19989-16868 (36857) |
| └ Under leg | Underavg 55¢ | $672.1 | $690.55 | +$18.33 | |
| └ Over leg | Overavg 42.8¢ | $200.65 | $203.89 | +$3.19 | |
IC ic4cream | Underavg 55¢ | $532.46 | $542.24 | +$9.77 | 56% 2876-2262 (5138) |
38 38791873984189<$100 | Underavg 56¢ | $66.81 | $67.42 | +$0.61 | 48% 70290-75979 (146269) |
 VeryLucky888CTR<$100 | Overavg 44¢ | $51.76 | $51.18 | -$0.58 | 59% 52401-37126 (89527) |
NM NM-PCTR<$100 | Overavg 44¢ | $44.48 | $44.98 | +$0.5 | 58% 22563-16669 (39232) |
GC GC-PCTR<$100 | Overavg 44¢ | $42.27 | $41.8 | -$0.47 | 57% 22242-16601 (38843) |
 nigiri99CTR<$100 | Overavg 44¢ | $29.48 | $29.82 | +$0.34 | 45% 14433-17740 (32173) |
PA Pan9X<$100 | Underavg 57.2¢ | $14.64 | $14.46 | -$0.18 | 52% 27270-24782 (52052) |
Invested
$1,129.41
Value
$1.1K
PnL
-$24.82
Record
46%
5627-6537 (12164)
Invested
$872.92
Value
$894.44
PnL
+$21.53
Record
54%
19989-16868 (36857)
Both legs:
Invested
$532.46
Value
$542.24
PnL
+$9.77
Record
56%
2876-2262 (5138)
Invested
$66.81
Value
$67.42
PnL
+$0.61
Record
48%
70290-75979 (146269)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100Invested
$51.76
Value
$51.18
PnL
-$0.58
Record
59%
52401-37126 (89527)
Invested
$44.48
Value
$44.98
PnL
+$0.5
Record
58%
22563-16669 (39232)
Invested
$42.27
Value
$41.8
PnL
-$0.47
Record
57%
22242-16601 (38843)
nigiri99CTR<$100Invested
$29.48
Value
$29.82
PnL
+$0.34
Record
45%
14433-17740 (32173)
Invested
$14.64
Value
$14.46
PnL
-$0.18
Record
52%
27270-24782 (52052)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
43.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.