Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (53%). 7 of 11 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Celtics vs. Bucks: O/U 223.5

7 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Over (64%) · Over at 48¢ · $15K held · ends Nov 9

Over48¢Under52¢Ends Mon, Nov 9, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 64%

Total Value

$14.6K

Combined PnL

$105.17

Smart Money Entry

46.2¢ → 47.5¢

+3% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

AvoidOver at 48%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

7 of 11 top traders (64%)Underdog side (market favors Under 53%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over48%

Under53%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over7 traders

Total Value$11.6K

Total Shares24,103

Combined PnL+$85.04

Under4 traders

Total Value$2.9K

Total Shares5,394

Combined PnL+$20.13

Over — 64%Under — 36%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Under) and the top 1000 (6 on Over) disagree here.

whaleUnder 67% · 3

Diverging

ctrUnder 75% · 4

Diverging

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Over 50% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	Overavg 46.4¢	$6.1K	$6.2K	+$29.58	54% 19973-16852 (36825)
HI hi774cCTR	Overavg 46¢	$4.6K	$4.7K	+$50	46% 5617-6532 (12149)
nigiri99	Underavg 54.1¢	$2.9K	$2.9K	+$19.34	45% 14423-17722 (32145)
VE VenusianCTR	Overavg 46¢	$304.11	$304.11	+$0	48% 2117-2339 (4456)
GC GC-PCTR	Overavg 46¢	$161	$162.75	+$1.75	57% 22226-16583 (38809)
NM NM-PCTR	Overavg 46¢	$161	$162.75	+$1.75	57% 22335-16609 (38944)
VeryLucky888CTR	Overavg 45.8¢	$282.18	$116.25	-$1.28	59% 52363-37089 (89452)
BO BoomLaLaCTR<$100	Overavg 44.3¢	$64.56	$67.8	+$3.24	53% 14327-12638 (26965)
GH ghorrock<$100	Underavg 52¢	$12.79	$13.28	+$0.49	57% 24661-18268 (42929)
0xheavy888<$100	Underavg 53¢	$10.6	$10.9	+$0.3	56% 8753-6943 (15696)
SE sentrio<$100	Underavg 52¢	$1.08	$1.09	+$0.01	50% 27934-27381 (55315)

HomeRunHazardCTR

Over

Invested

$6,140.07

Value

$6.2K

PnL

+$29.58

Record

54%

19973-16852 (36825)

hi774cCTR

Over

Invested

$4,600

Value

$4.7K

PnL

+$50

Record

46%

5617-6532 (12149)

nigiri99

Under

Invested

$2,895.32

Value

$2.9K

PnL

+$19.34

Record

45%

14423-17722 (32145)

VenusianCTR

Over

Invested

$304.11

Value

$304.11

PnL

+$0

Record

48%

2117-2339 (4456)

GC-PCTR

Over

Invested

$161

Value

$162.75

PnL

+$1.75

Record

57%

22226-16583 (38809)

NM-PCTR

Over

Invested

$161

Value

$162.75

PnL

+$1.75

Record

57%

22335-16609 (38944)

VeryLucky888CTR

Over

Invested

$282.18

Value

$116.25

PnL

-$1.28

Record

59%

52363-37089 (89452)

BoomLaLaCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$64.56

Value

$67.8

PnL

+$3.24

Record

53%

14327-12638 (26965)

ghorrock<$100

Under

Invested

$12.79

Value

$13.28

PnL

+$0.49

Record

57%

24661-18268 (42929)

0xheavy888<$100

Under

Invested

$10.6

Value

$10.9

PnL

+$0.3

Record

56%

8753-6943 (15696)

sentrio<$100

Under

Invested

$1.08

Value

$1.09

PnL

+$0.01

Record

50%

27934-27381 (55315)

Research grade

AvoidOver at 48%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Over

7 of 11 top traders (64%)Underdog side (market favors Under 53%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Under) and the top 1000 (6 on Over) disagree here.

whaleUnder 67% · 3

Diverging

ctrUnder 75% · 4

Diverging

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Over 50% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance49.7%

47.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$101.01

Max Loss

-$100.00

201.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.