Celtics vs. Rockets: O/U 219.5
8 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Under (80%) · Under at 59¢ · $41K held
⚠️
Avoid
Under
10
Under 80%
$41.4K
$224.43
52.1¢ → 59¢
+13% since entry · 8 traders
Research grade
AvoidUnder at 59%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
8 of 10 top traders (80%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
7 traders
Top 2 hold 59%
Freshness
Fresh
7h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
78% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 59% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 FeedTheBigBirdCTR | Overavg 48¢ | $12.0K | $12.0K | -$875 | 47% 54-62 (116) |
HO HomeRunHazard | Underavg 52¢ | $7.5K | $7.5K | +$507.36 | 54% 17537-14740 (32277) |
CH chongchong37CTR | Overavg 48¢ | $7.2K | $7.2K | -$524.95 | 53% 126-112 (238) |
SU SunlineTicker | Underavg 52¢ | $5.2K | $5.2K | +$352.98 | 62% 4301-2639 (6940) |
VE Venusian | Underavg 52¢ | $5.1K | $5.1K | +$343.7 | 50% 359-356 (715) |
 nigiri99 | Underavg 52¢ | $2.9K | $3.3K | +$387.33 | 46% 8100-9429 (17529) |
0X 0xb4F978BE63cDF75554b0B46a4262a6dB597cc9A7-1779258330186 | Underavg 52¢ | $394.12 | $394.12 | +$26.3 | 46% 472-546 (1018) |
FE ferdinand2 | Underavg 52¢ | $368.32 | $368.32 | -$3.54 | 48% 5572-6026 (11598) |
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080 | Underavg 58¢ | $232 | $236 | +$4 | 51% 1601-1545 (3146) |
HE Herdonia<$100 | Underavg 54.5¢ | $75.22 | $81.48 | +$6.26 | 54% 3481-3016 (6497) |
FeedTheBigBirdCTRInvested
$11,999.99
Value
$12.0K
PnL
-$875
Record
47%
54-62 (116)
Invested
$7,510.81
Value
$7.5K
PnL
+$507.36
Record
54%
17537-14740 (32277)
Invested
$7,199.99
Value
$7.2K
PnL
-$524.95
Record
53%
126-112 (238)
Invested
$5,244.2
Value
$5.2K
PnL
+$352.98
Record
62%
4301-2639 (6940)
Invested
$5,106.4
Value
$5.1K
PnL
+$343.7
Record
50%
359-356 (715)
nigiri99Invested
$2,896.02
Value
$3.3K
PnL
+$387.33
Record
46%
8100-9429 (17529)
Invested
$394.12
Value
$394.12
PnL
+$26.3
Record
46%
472-546 (1018)
Invested
$368.32
Value
$368.32
PnL
-$3.54
Record
48%
5572-6026 (11598)
Invested
$232
Value
$236
PnL
+$4
Record
51%
1601-1545 (3146)
Invested
$75.22
Value
$81.48
PnL
+$6.26
Record
54%
3481-3016 (6497)
Chat
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
59.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.
Market Info
Traders in this Market
FeedTheBigBird
CTROver — $12.0K
HomeRunHazard
Under — $7.5K
chongchong37
CTROver — $7.2K
SunlineTicker
Under — $5.2K
Venusian
Under — $5.1K
nigiri99
Under — $3.3K
0xb4F978BE63cDF75554b0B46a4262a6dB597cc9A7-1779258330186
Under — $394.12
ferdinand2
Under — $368.32
0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080
Under — $236
Herdonia
Under — $81.48