Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (56%). 10 of 20 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Celtics vs. Rockets: O/U 218.5

10 of 20 top Polymarket traders hold Over (50%) · Over at 45¢ · $40K held · ends Nov 3

Over45¢Under55¢Ends Tue, Nov 3, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 50%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$40.1K

Combined PnL

-$371.81

Smart Money Entry

49.7¢ → 44.5¢

-10% since entry · 10 traders

Research grade

AvoidOver at 45%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

10 of 20 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Under 56%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed10 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over45%

Under56%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over10 traders

Total Value$18.3K

Total Shares40,569

Combined PnL$-1.3K

Under10 traders

Total Value$19.8K

Total Shares35,924

Combined PnL+$941.82

Over — 50%Under — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+8 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 81%

Freshness

Fresh

8h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

47% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 81% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on Under) and the top 1000 (18 on Over) disagree here.

whaleUnder 60% · 5

Diverging

sharpOver 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrOver 57% · 14

Aligned

Hand-pickedUnder 50% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Over 50% · 18

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
CO CosplayGaoJinCTR	Overavg 50¢	$11.7K	$10.5K	-$819.27	44% 59-75 (134)
HO HomeRunHazard	Underavg 51.3¢	$8.7K	$9.5K	+$711.33	54% 17537-14740 (32277)
ComingBack	Underavg 50¢	$4.7K	$5.2K	-$47.28	61% 4000-2513 (6513)
SU SunlineTickerCTR	Overavg 49¢	$4.7K	$4.3K	-$240.49	62% 4301-2639 (6940)
DV dv-pmCTR	Overavg 50¢	$1.8K	$1.6K	-$126.66	49% 3244-3326 (6570)
VE Venusian	Underavg 51¢	$1.5K	$1.6K	+$73.15	50% 359-356 (715)
HA hang808CTR	Overavg 50¢	$1.7K	$1.5K	-$119.47	41% 153-222 (375)
nigiri99	Underavg 50.4¢	$1.2K	$1.3K	+$72.98	46% 8100-9429 (17529)
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Underavg 53.1¢	$1.3K	$1.2K	-$4.08	47% 13202-14757 (27959)
└ Under leg	Underavg 53.1¢	$713.1	$732.48	+$19.38
└ Over leg	Overavg 48.5¢	$449.94	$421.94	-$23.46
LI LightParadox	Underavg 52¢	$817.26	$863.79	+$46.53	52% 378-349 (727)
HE Herdonia	Underavg 50.9¢	$796.72	$853.8	+$57.07	54% 3481-3016 (6497)
SE sentrioARB<$100	Underavg 50.8¢	$785.16	$821.54	+$36.39	50% 25032-24757 (49789)
└ Under leg	Underavg 50.8¢	$551.45	$597.42	+$45.97
└ Over leg	Overavg 46.9¢	$233.71	$224.12	-$9.58
FE ferdinand2	Underavg 50¢	$222.51	$244.76	+$6.68	48% 5572-6026 (11598)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR	Overavg 46¢	$183.94	$179.94	-$4	51% 1601-1545 (3146)
VeryLucky888	Underavg 50¢	$125	$137.5	+$13.75	58% 43710-31800 (75510)
0X 0xb4F978BE63cDF75554b0B46a4262a6dB597cc9A7-1779258330186	Underavg 51¢	$113.08	$121.95	+$5.54	46% 472-546 (1018)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Underavg 52.3¢	$49.69	$51.78	+$2.09	58% 29933-21984 (51917)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Overavg 48.8¢	$82.14	$35.74	-$3.01	57% 17433-13012 (30445)
SU suntoriCTR<$100	Overavg 46¢	$7.47	$7.39	-$0.08	45% 13087-15871 (28958)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Overavg 50¢	$4.95	$5	+$0.05	52% 8285-7512 (15797)
0xheavy888CTR<$100	Overavg 49¢	$4.9	$4.5	-$0.25	56% 7482-5994 (13476)
GG GGLPLCTR<$100	Overavg 50¢	$4.45	$4.01	-$0.45	50% 717-718 (1435)

CosplayGaoJinCTR

Over

Invested

$11,704.12

Value

$10.5K

PnL

-$819.27

Record

44%

59-75 (134)

HomeRunHazard

Under

Invested

$8,745.06

Value

$9.5K

PnL

+$711.33

Record

54%

17537-14740 (32277)

ComingBack

Under

Invested

$4,729

Value

$5.2K

PnL

-$47.28

Record

61%

4000-2513 (6513)

SunlineTickerCTR

Over

Invested

$4,713.73

Value

$4.3K

PnL

-$240.49

Record

62%

4301-2639 (6940)

dv-pmCTR

Over

Invested

$1,809.45

Value

$1.6K

PnL

-$126.66

Record

49%

3244-3326 (6570)

Venusian

Under

Invested

$1,492.26

Value

$1.6K

PnL

+$73.15

Record

50%

359-356 (715)

hang808CTR

Over

Invested

$1,702.8

Value

$1.5K

PnL

-$119.47

Record

41%

153-222 (375)

nigiri99

Under

Invested

$1,185.88

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$72.98

Record

46%

8100-9429 (17529)

38791873984189ARB<$100

Under

Invested

$1,311.79

Value

$1.2K

PnL

-$4.08

Record

47%

13202-14757 (27959)

Both legs:

Under$713.153.1¢+$19.38

Over$449.9448.5¢-$23.46

LightParadox

Under

Invested

$817.26

Value

$863.79

PnL

+$46.53

Record

52%

378-349 (727)

Herdonia

Under

Invested

$796.72

Value

$853.8

PnL

+$57.07

Record

54%

3481-3016 (6497)

sentrioARB<$100

Under

Invested

$785.16

Value

$821.54

PnL

+$36.39

Record

50%

25032-24757 (49789)

Both legs:

Under$551.4550.8¢+$45.97

Over$233.7146.9¢-$9.58

ferdinand2

Under

Invested

$222.51

Value

$244.76

PnL

+$6.68

Record

48%

5572-6026 (11598)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR

Over

Invested

$183.94

Value

$179.94

PnL

-$4

Record

51%

1601-1545 (3146)

VeryLucky888

Under

Invested

$125

Value

$137.5

PnL

+$13.75

Record

58%

43710-31800 (75510)

0xb4F978BE63cDF75554b0B46a4262a6dB597cc9A7-1779258330186

Under

Invested

$113.08

Value

$121.95

PnL

+$5.54

Record

46%

472-546 (1018)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Under

Invested

$49.69

Value

$51.78

PnL

+$2.09

Record

58%

29933-21984 (51917)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$82.14

Value

$35.74

PnL

-$3.01

Record

57%

17433-13012 (30445)

suntoriCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$7.47

Value

$7.39

PnL

-$0.08

Record

45%

13087-15871 (28958)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$4.95

Value

PnL

+$0.05

Record

52%

8285-7512 (15797)

0xheavy888CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$4.9

Value

$4.5

PnL

-$0.25

Record

56%

7482-5994 (13476)

GGLPLCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$4.45

Value

$4.01

PnL

-$0.45

Record

50%

717-718 (1435)

Research grade

AvoidOver at 45%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Over

10 of 20 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Under 56%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed10 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+8 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 81%

Freshness

Fresh

8h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

47% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 81% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on Under) and the top 1000 (18 on Over) disagree here.

whaleUnder 60% · 5

Diverging

sharpOver 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrOver 57% · 14

Aligned

Hand-pickedUnder 50% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Over 50% · 18

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance46.7%

44.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$113.95

Max Loss

-$100.00

214.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.