Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (52%). 9 of 12 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Celtics vs. Rockets: O/U 216.5

9 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Over (75%) · Over at 49¢ · $17K held · ends Nov 3

Over49¢Under51¢Ends Tue, Nov 3, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 75%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$16.9K

Combined PnL

-$405.95

Smart Money Entry

53.1¢ → 48.5¢

-9% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

AvoidOver at 49%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

9 of 12 top traders (75%)Underdog side (market favors Under 52%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over49%

Under52%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under3 traders

Total Value$7.6K

Total Shares14,747

Combined PnL+$63.55

Over9 traders

Total Value$8.2K

Total Shares15,437

Combined PnL-$469.5

Under — 25%Over — 75%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Fresh

5h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

86% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleOver 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrOver 75% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Over 83% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GM gmpm2	Underavg 51¢	$6.4K	$6.5K	+$63.19	53% 353-319 (672)
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	Overavg 54.7¢	$6.2K	$5.7K	-$425.55	54% 17516-14721 (32237)
nigiri99	Underavg 49.5¢	$1.0K	$1.0K	+$0.57	46% 7291-8601 (15892)
PL pltrkr111CTR	Overavg 49¢	$1,000	$989.79	-$10.2	54% 747-630 (1377)
HE HerdoniaCTR	Overavg 49¢	$902.61	$893.4	-$9.21	54% 3481-3016 (6497)
RN1ARB<$100	Overavg 53.2¢	$604.18	$590.09	-$14.09	54% 58173-50394 (108567)
└ Under leg	Underavg 49¢	$281.9	$296.29	+$14.38
└ Over leg	Overavg 53.2¢	$322.28	$293.81	-$28.47
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Overavg 51.4¢	$492.03	$488.91	-$3.12	47% 13102-14675 (27777)
└ Over leg	Overavg 51.4¢	$281.25	$265.3	-$15.95
└ Under leg	Underavg 48.5¢	$210.78	$223.62	+$12.84
VeryLucky888CTR	Overavg 54¢	$270	$257.5	-$12.5	58% 43654-31752 (75406)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR	Overavg 51¢	$204	$202	-$2	51% 1598-1540 (3138)
SE sentrioCTR	Overavg 52.1¢	$115.21	$109.37	-$5.84	50% 25018-24739 (49757)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Overavg 51.4¢	$66.8	$53.02	-$3.1	57% 17377-12977 (30354)
OM omnibus-076daa<$100	Underavg 52¢	$21.61	$21.4	-$0.21	50% 19845-20180 (40025)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Overavg 50.9¢	$20.85	$19.88	-$0.97	58% 29915-21972 (51887)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Overavg 54¢	$2.7	$2.58	-$0.13	53% 7654-6920 (14574)

gmpm2

Under

Invested

$6,445.15

Value

$6.5K

PnL

+$63.19

Record

53%

353-319 (672)

HomeRunHazardCTR

Over

Invested

$6,225.01

Value

$5.7K

PnL

-$425.55

Record

54%

17516-14721 (32237)

nigiri99

Under

Invested

$1,023.1

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$0.57

Record

46%

7291-8601 (15892)

pltrkr111CTR

Over

Invested

$1,000

Value

$989.79

PnL

-$10.2

Record

54%

747-630 (1377)

HerdoniaCTR

Over

Invested

$902.61

Value

$893.4

PnL

-$9.21

Record

54%

3481-3016 (6497)

RN1ARB<$100

Over

Invested

$604.18

Value

$590.09

PnL

-$14.09

Record

54%

58173-50394 (108567)

Both legs:

Under$281.949¢+$14.38

Over$322.2853.2¢-$28.47

38791873984189ARB<$100

Over

Invested

$492.03

Value

$488.91

PnL

-$3.12

Record

47%

13102-14675 (27777)

Both legs:

Over$281.2551.4¢-$15.95

Under$210.7848.5¢+$12.84

VeryLucky888CTR

Over

Invested

$270

Value

$257.5

PnL

-$12.5

Record

58%

43654-31752 (75406)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR

Over

Invested

$204

Value

$202

PnL

-$2

Record

51%

1598-1540 (3138)

sentrioCTR

Over

Invested

$115.21

Value

$109.37

PnL

-$5.84

Record

50%

25018-24739 (49757)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$66.8

Value

$53.02

PnL

-$3.1

Record

57%

17377-12977 (30354)

omnibus-076daa<$100

Under

Invested

$21.61

Value

$21.4

PnL

-$0.21

Record

50%

19845-20180 (40025)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$20.85

Value

$19.88

PnL

-$0.97

Record

58%

29915-21972 (51887)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$2.7

Value

$2.58

PnL

-$0.13

Record

53%

7654-6920 (14574)

Research grade

AvoidOver at 49%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Over

9 of 12 top traders (75%)Underdog side (market favors Under 52%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Fresh

5h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

86% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleOver 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrOver 75% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Over 83% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance50.7%

48.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$97.04

Max Loss

-$100.00

197.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.