Celtics vs. Rockets

3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Rockets (75%) · Rockets at 64¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 3

Celtics36¢Rockets64¢Ends Tue, Nov 3, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Rockets

Consensus Traders

Rockets 75%

Total Value

$1.3K

Combined PnL

$0.59

Smart Money Entry

64.4¢ → 64¢

-1% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

AvoidRockets at 64%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Rockets

3 of 4 top traders (75%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Celtics36%

Rockets64%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Rockets3 traders

Total Value$1.2K

Total Shares1,836

Combined PnL+$0.59

Celtics1 trader

Total Value$8.05

Total Shares23

Combined PnL-$0

Rockets — 75%Celtics — 25%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
VeryLucky888	Rocketsavg 64¢	$754.73	$619.14	+$4.15	58% 43210-31449 (74659)
QW QWUERHAIUKSJNFSNCF	Rocketsavg 65¢	$463.1	$455.97	-$3.56	54% 402-345 (747)
0X 0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989	Rocketsavg 64¢	$171.78	$171.78	+$0	53% 5731-5065 (10796)
FO forecastication4CTR<$100	Celticsavg 35¢	$8.05	$8.05	-$0	50% 1224-1240 (2464)

VeryLucky888

Rockets

Invested

$754.73

Value

$619.14

PnL

+$4.15

Record

58%

43210-31449 (74659)

QWUERHAIUKSJNFSNCF

Rockets

Invested

$463.1

Value

$455.97

PnL

-$3.56

Record

54%

402-345 (747)

0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989

Rockets

Invested

$171.78

Value

$171.78

PnL

+$0

Record

53%

5731-5065 (10796)

forecastication4CTR<$100

Celtics

Invested

$8.05

Value

$8.05

PnL

-$0

Record

50%

1224-1240 (2464)

Research grade

AvoidRockets at 64%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Rockets

3 of 4 top traders (75%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Rockets wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance66.1%

64.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$51.20

Max Loss

-$100.00

151.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.