Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Hornets, while the market favors Celtics (79%). 13 of 17 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Celtics vs. Hornets

13 of 17 top Polymarket traders hold Hornets (76%) · Hornets at 22¢ · $7K held · ends Nov 7

Celtics79¢Hornets21¢Ends Sat, Nov 7, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Hornets

Consensus Traders

Hornets 76%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$7.2K

Combined PnL

-$248.27

Smart Money Entry

22.4¢ → 21.5¢

-4% since entry · 13 traders

Research grade

AvoidHornets at 22%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Hornets

13 of 17 top traders (76%)Underdog side (market favors Celtics 79%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed13 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Celtics79%

Hornets22%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Hornets13 traders

Total Value$4.3K

Total Shares19,958

Combined PnL-$219.89

Celtics4 traders

Total Value$2.0K

Total Shares2,580

Combined PnL-$28.38

Hornets — 76%Celtics — 24%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-4 pts consensus

Breadth

12 traders

Top 2 hold 69%

Freshness

Mature

29h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

75% of non-arb traders are on Hornets. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 69% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleHornets 50% · 4

Aligned

sharpHornets 67% · 3

Aligned

ctrHornets 67% · 12

Aligned

Hand-pickedHornets 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Hornets 73% · 15

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	Hornetsavg 22¢	$1.7K	$1.7K	-$37.96	54% 18312-15410 (33722)
ST stackingsatsCTR	Hornetsavg 21¢	$1.1K	$1.2K	+$26.8	48% 356-386 (742)
GA Gaditima	Celticsavg 76.9¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	-$21.87	48% 7448-8164 (15612)
nigiri99	Celticsavg 77.9¢	$959.76	$870.39	-$7.37	46% 8690-10364 (19054)
PU purplegattoARB<$100	Celticsavg 76.3¢	$862.42	$848.15	-$14.28	49% 6359-6518 (12877)
└ Celtics leg	Celticsavg 76.3¢	$662.12	$676.64	+$14.52
└ Hornets leg	Hornetsavg 24.5¢	$200.3	$171.5	-$28.8
VeryLucky888CTR	Hornetsavg 25¢	$1.2K	$420.04	-$151.51	58% 47122-33996 (81118)
TA takeormakeCTR	Hornetsavg 24.7¢	$327.66	$326.55	-$1.11	52% 4960-4511 (9471)
NM NM-PCTR	Hornetsavg 22¢	$220	$210	-$10	64% 10073-5631 (15704)
OD OddstormCTR	Hornetsavg 23.6¢	$281.41	$189.15	-$22.41	48% 7427-7962 (15389)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR	Hornetsavg 23¢	$138	$126	-$12	51% 1988-1923 (3911)
GC GC-PCTR	Hornetsavg 21¢	$105	$105	+$0	64% 10095-5700 (15795)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Hornetsavg 25.2¢	$47.85	$42.43	-$5.42	48% 61956-66813 (128769)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Hornetsavg 25¢	$38.63	$32.45	-$6.18	50% 26140-25802 (51942)
HE Herdonia<$100	Celticsavg 74¢	$17.39	$18.33	+$0.94	51% 3835-3755 (7590)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Hornetsavg 22.6¢	$5.66	$10.92	+$0.08	54% 10107-8484 (18591)
EF efntrickCTR<$100	Hornetsavg 22¢	$4.4	$4.3	-$0.1	48% 3676-3927 (7603)
AC Aceplus3<$100	Celticsavg 75.9¢	$2.06	$1.98	-$0.08	55% 37-30 (67)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Hornetsavg 24¢	$1.2	$1.05	-$0.08	52% 8861-8048 (16909)

HomeRunHazardCTR

Hornets

Invested

$1,688.91

Value

$1.7K

PnL

-$37.96

Record

54%

18312-15410 (33722)

stackingsatsCTR

Hornets

Invested

$1,125.77

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$26.8

Record

48%

356-386 (742)

Gaditima

Celtics

Invested

$1,129.34

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$21.87

Record

48%

7448-8164 (15612)

nigiri99

Celtics

Invested

$959.76

Value

$870.39

PnL

-$7.37

Record

46%

8690-10364 (19054)

purplegattoARB<$100

Celtics

Invested

$862.42

Value

$848.15

PnL

-$14.28

Record

49%

6359-6518 (12877)

Both legs:

Celtics$662.1276.3¢+$14.52

Hornets$200.324.5¢-$28.8

VeryLucky888CTR

Hornets

Invested

$1,181.22

Value

$420.04

PnL

-$151.51

Record

58%

47122-33996 (81118)

takeormakeCTR

Hornets

Invested

$327.66

Value

$326.55

PnL

-$1.11

Record

52%

4960-4511 (9471)

NM-PCTR

Hornets

Invested

$220

Value

$210

PnL

-$10

Record

64%

10073-5631 (15704)

OddstormCTR

Hornets

Invested

$281.41

Value

$189.15

PnL

-$22.41

Record

48%

7427-7962 (15389)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR

Hornets

Invested

$138

Value

$126

PnL

-$12

Record

51%

1988-1923 (3911)

GC-PCTR

Hornets

Invested

$105

Value

$105

PnL

+$0

Record

64%

10095-5700 (15795)

38791873984189CTR<$100

Hornets

Invested

$47.85

Value

$42.43

PnL

-$5.42

Record

48%

61956-66813 (128769)

sentrioCTR<$100

Hornets

Invested

$38.63

Value

$32.45

PnL

-$6.18

Record

50%

26140-25802 (51942)

Herdonia<$100

Celtics

Invested

$17.39

Value

$18.33

PnL

+$0.94

Record

51%

3835-3755 (7590)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Hornets

Invested

$5.66

Value

$10.92

PnL

+$0.08

Record

54%

10107-8484 (18591)

efntrickCTR<$100

Hornets

Invested

$4.4

Value

$4.3

PnL

-$0.1

Record

48%

3676-3927 (7603)

Aceplus3<$100

Celtics

Invested

$2.06

Value

$1.98

PnL

-$0.08

Record

55%

37-30 (67)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Hornets

Invested

$1.2

Value

$1.05

PnL

-$0.08

Record

52%

8861-8048 (16909)

Research grade

AvoidHornets at 22%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.

Smart Money Signal

Hornets

13 of 17 top traders (76%)Underdog side (market favors Celtics 79%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed13 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-4 pts consensus

Breadth

12 traders

Top 2 hold 69%

Freshness

Mature

29h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

75% of non-arb traders are on Hornets. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 69% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleHornets 50% · 4

Aligned

sharpHornets 67% · 3

Aligned

ctrHornets 67% · 12

Aligned

Hand-pickedHornets 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Hornets 73% · 15

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Hornets wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance23.4%

21.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$327.86

Max Loss

-$100.00

427.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.