Nets vs. Knicks
6 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Knicks (75%) · Knicks at 89¢ · $7K held · ends Nov 3
⚠️
Avoid
Knicks
8
Knicks 75%
$7.1K
$50.91
87.8¢ → 88.5¢
+1% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
AvoidKnicks at 89%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 8 top traders (75%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HO HomeRunHazard | Knicksavg 88¢ | $5.0K | $5.0K | +$29.1 | 54% 17504-14709 (32213) |
 nigiri99 | Knicksavg 87.4¢ | $1.9K | $1.9K | +$23 | 46% 7287-8587 (15874) |
38 38791873984189 | Knicksavg 88¢ | $125.21 | $124.54 | -$0.67 | 47% 12949-14528 (27477) |
SL slimjoe<$100 | Knicksavg 87¢ | $25.22 | $25.22 | +$0.43 | 51% 6568-6211 (12779) |
 funnydayCTR<$100 | Netsavg 12¢ | $24 | $23 | -$1 | 50% 3925-3907 (7832) |
 0xheavy888<$100 | Knicksavg 87¢ | $8.7 | $8.7 | +$0.15 | 55% 7454-5978 (13432) |
TA takeormakeCTR<$100 | Netsavg 12¢ | $2.4 | $2.3 | -$0.1 | 53% 4424-3868 (8292) |
OM omnibus-424779<$100 | Knicksavg 89¢ | $1.97 | $1.96 | -$0.01 | 31% 1131-2559 (3690) |
Invested
$5,017.23
Value
$5.0K
PnL
+$29.1
Record
54%
17504-14709 (32213)
nigiri99Invested
$1,853.2
Value
$1.9K
PnL
+$23
Record
46%
7287-8587 (15874)
Invested
$125.21
Value
$124.54
PnL
-$0.67
Record
47%
12949-14528 (27477)
Invested
$25.22
Value
$25.22
PnL
+$0.43
Record
51%
6568-6211 (12779)
funnydayCTR<$100Invested
$24
Value
$23
PnL
-$1
Record
50%
3925-3907 (7832)
0xheavy888<$100Invested
$8.7
Value
$8.7
PnL
+$0.15
Record
55%
7454-5978 (13432)
Invested
$2.4
Value
$2.3
PnL
-$0.1
Record
53%
4424-3868 (8292)
Invested
$1.97
Value
$1.96
PnL
-$0.01
Record
31%
1131-2559 (3690)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
88.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.