Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (51%). 2 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Nets vs. Pelicans: O/U 228.5
2 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Under (29%) · Under at 50¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 12
⚠️
Avoid
Under
7
Under 29%
$1.7K
-$5.43
50¢ → 49.5¢
-1% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
AvoidUnder at 50%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 7 top traders (29%)Underdog side (market favors Over 51%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
29% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
KA KasonWongCTR | Underavg 50¢ | $1.0K | $990 | -$10 | 23% 7-24 (31) |
38 38791873984189 | Overavg 49.5¢ | $226.5 | $228.99 | +$2.49 | 48% 1273-1369 (2642) |
LI Limousin | Overavg 50¢ | $175.41 | $175.41 | +$0 | 30% 369-862 (1231) |
LI LightParadox | Overavg 50¢ | $165.43 | $165.43 | +$0 | 30% 368-861 (1229) |
MA MadridTime<$100 | Overavg 50¢ | $65.23 | $65.88 | +$0.65 | 31% 373-839 (1212) |
 VeryLucky888<$100 | Overavg 49¢ | $55.22 | $56.35 | +$1.13 | 52% 441-413 (854) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Underavg 49¢ | $14.7 | $15 | +$0.3 | 54% 553-469 (1022) |
Invested
$1,000
Value
$990
PnL
-$10
Record
23%
7-24 (31)
Invested
$226.5
Value
$228.99
PnL
+$2.49
Record
48%
1273-1369 (2642)
Invested
$175.41
Value
$175.41
PnL
+$0
Record
30%
369-862 (1231)
Invested
$165.43
Value
$165.43
PnL
+$0
Record
30%
368-861 (1229)
Invested
$65.23
Value
$65.88
PnL
+$0.65
Record
31%
373-839 (1212)
VeryLucky888<$100Invested
$55.22
Value
$56.35
PnL
+$1.13
Record
52%
441-413 (854)
Invested
$14.7
Value
$15
PnL
+$0.3
Record
54%
553-469 (1022)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
49.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.