Spread: Pelicans (-5.5)

2 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Nets (29%) · Nets at 57¢ · $260 held · ends Nov 12

Pelicans43¢Nets57¢Ends Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Nets

Consensus Traders

Nets 29%

Total Value

$260.49

Combined PnL

-$4.08

Smart Money Entry

57.5¢ → 57.5¢

+0% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

AvoidNets at 57%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Nets

2 of 7 top traders (29%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Pelicans43%

Nets57%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Nets2 traders

Total Value$214.42

Total Shares373

Combined PnL-$0.16

Pelicans5 traders

Total Value$46.06

Total Shares107

Combined PnL-$3.91

Nets — 29%Pelicans — 71%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazard	Netsavg 57.6¢	$182.29	$182.13	-$0.16	57% 3221-2431 (5652)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Pelicansavg 47¢	$39.97	$36.57	-$3.4	45% 263-319 (582)
38 38791873984189<$100	Netsavg 57¢	$32.3	$32.3	+$0	48% 1352-1466 (2818)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Pelicansavg 46¢	$3.26	$3.05	-$0.21	31% 380-851 (1231)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Pelicansavg 46¢	$2.3	$2.15	-$0.15	30% 375-875 (1250)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Pelicansavg 46¢	$2.3	$2.15	-$0.15	32% 291-617 (908)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Pelicansavg 43¢	$2.15	$2.15	-$0	30% 378-869 (1247)

HomeRunHazard

Nets

Invested

$182.29

Value

$182.13

PnL

-$0.16

Record

57%

3221-2431 (5652)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Pelicans

Invested

$39.97

Value

$36.57

PnL

-$3.4

Record

45%

263-319 (582)

38791873984189<$100

Nets

Invested

$32.3

Value

$32.3

PnL

+$0

Record

48%

1352-1466 (2818)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Pelicans

Invested

$3.26

Value

$3.05

PnL

-$0.21

Record

31%

380-851 (1231)

LimousinCTR<$100

Pelicans

Invested

$2.3

Value

$2.15

PnL

-$0.15

Record

30%

375-875 (1250)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Pelicans

Invested

$2.3

Value

$2.15

PnL

-$0.15

Record

32%

291-617 (908)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Pelicans

Invested

$2.15

Value

$2.15

PnL

-$0

Record

30%

378-869 (1247)

Research grade

AvoidNets at 57%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Nets

2 of 7 top traders (29%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Nets wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance59.7%

57.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$67.47

Max Loss

-$100.00

167.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.