Nets vs. Grizzlies: O/U 229.5

2 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Under (25%) · Under at 57¢ · $3K held · ends Nov 15

Over43¢Under57¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 25%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$2.7K

Combined PnL

$43.2

Smart Money Entry

55.4¢ → 57.5¢

+4% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 57%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

2 of 8 top traders (25%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over43%

Under57%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under2 traders

Total Value$2.3K

Total Shares3,840

Combined PnL+$58.06

Over6 traders

Total Value$239.51

Total Shares577

Combined PnL-$14.87

Under — 25%Over — 75%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

29% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrOver 83% · 6

Diverging

Top 1000Over 71% · 7

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
nigiri99	Underavg 55.3¢	$1.5K	$1.4K	+$43.95	52% 573-538 (1111)
HO HomeRunHazard	Underavg 55.6¢	$942.01	$889.51	+$14.12	56% 3687-2847 (6534)
OV overtimemarkets.xyz-singlesARB<$100	Underavg 50¢	$200	$198	-$2	69% 134-60 (194)
└ Under leg	Underavg 50¢	$100	$116	+$16
└ Over leg	Overavg 50¢	$100	$82	-$18
MA MadridTimeCTR	Overavg 46¢	$130.37	$116.2	-$14.17	38% 1060-1756 (2816)
GC GC-PCTR<$100	Overavg 42¢	$88.2	$88.2	-$0	38% 395-632 (1027)
0xheavy888CTR<$100	Overavg 42.8¢	$17.95	$17.63	-$0.32	55% 515-424 (939)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Overavg 42.7¢	$20.8	$12.29	-$0	53% 1854-1648 (3502)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Overavg 46¢	$4.6	$4.2	-$0.4	41% 705-1014 (1719)
BO BoomLaLaCTR<$100	Overavg 41¢	$0.97	$0.99	+$0.02	35% 162-305 (467)

nigiri99

Under

Invested

$1,469.82

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$43.95

Record

52%

573-538 (1111)

HomeRunHazard

Under

Invested

$942.01

Value

$889.51

PnL

+$14.12

Record

56%

3687-2847 (6534)

overtimemarkets.xyz-singlesARB<$100

Under

Invested

$200

Value

$198

PnL

-$2

Record

69%

134-60 (194)

Both legs:

Invested

$130.37

Value

$116.2

PnL

-$14.17

Record

38%

1060-1756 (2816)

GC-PCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$88.2

Value

$88.2

PnL

-$0

Record

38%

395-632 (1027)

0xheavy888CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$17.95

Value

$17.63

PnL

-$0.32

Record

55%

515-424 (939)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$20.8

Value

$12.29

PnL

-$0

Record

53%

1854-1648 (3502)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$4.6

Value

$4.2

PnL

-$0.4

Record

41%

705-1014 (1719)

BoomLaLaCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$0.97

Value

$0.99

PnL

+$0.02

Record

35%

162-305 (467)

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 57%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Under

2 of 8 top traders (25%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

29% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrOver 83% · 6

Diverging

Top 1000Over 71% · 7

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance59.7%

57.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$67.47

Max Loss

-$100.00

167.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.