Nets vs. Grizzlies: O/U 228.5

4 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Under (50%) · Under at 56¢ · $6K held · ends Nov 15

Over45¢Under55¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 50%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$6.3K

Combined PnL

$419.83

Smart Money Entry

50.8¢ → 55.5¢

+9% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 56%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

4 of 8 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over45%

Under56%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under4 traders

Total Value$5.8K

Total Shares10,275

Combined PnL+$468.53

Over4 traders

Total Value$442.93

Total Shares1,030

Combined PnL-$48.7

Under — 50%Over — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 95%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

38% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 95% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrOver 60% · 5

Diverging

Top 1000Over 63% · 8

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazard	Underavg 50.3¢	$3.6K	$4.0K	+$347.83	56% 3687-2847 (6534)
OM omnibus-076daa	Underavg 51.6¢	$1.4K	$1.5K	+$100.96	46% 499-597 (1096)
nigiri99	Underavg 51.8¢	$308.93	$318.64	+$20.56	51% 568-535 (1103)
SN SnakeBallCTR	Overavg 48¢	$301	$269.65	-$31.35	47% 936-1037 (1973)
38 38791873984189CTR	Overavg 48¢	$142.08	$127.28	-$14.8	48% 3239-3552 (6791)
SE sentrio<$100	Underavg 56¢	$92.19	$91.36	-$0.82	42% 1031-1416 (2447)
GH ghorrockARB<$100	Underavg 56¢	$50.93	$48.74	-$2.19	53% 1815-1613 (3428)
└ Under leg	Underavg 56¢	$27.29	$27.05	-$0.24
└ Over leg	Overavg 48.5¢	$23.64	$21.69	-$1.95
0xheavy888CTR<$100	Overavg 44¢	$30.79	$30.09	-$0.7	54% 503-422 (925)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Overavg 48¢	$17.76	$15.91	-$1.85	50% 1594-1620 (3214)

HomeRunHazard

Under

Invested

$3,640.34

Value

$4.0K

PnL

+$347.83

Record

56%

3687-2847 (6534)

omnibus-076daa

Under

Invested

$1,352.33

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$100.96

Record

46%

499-597 (1096)

nigiri99

Under

Invested

$308.93

Value

$318.64

PnL

+$20.56

Record

51%

568-535 (1103)

SnakeBallCTR

Over

Invested

$301

Value

$269.65

PnL

-$31.35

Record

47%

936-1037 (1973)

38791873984189CTR

Over

Invested

$142.08

Value

$127.28

PnL

-$14.8

Record

48%

3239-3552 (6791)

sentrio<$100

Under

Invested

$92.19

Value

$91.36

PnL

-$0.82

Record

42%

1031-1416 (2447)

ghorrockARB<$100

Under

Invested

$50.93

Value

$48.74

PnL

-$2.19

Record

53%

1815-1613 (3428)

Both legs:

Under$27.2956¢-$0.24

Over$23.6448.5¢-$1.95

0xheavy888CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$30.79

Value

$30.09

PnL

-$0.7

Record

54%

503-422 (925)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$17.76

Value

$15.91

PnL

-$1.85

Record

50%

1594-1620 (3214)

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 56%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Under

4 of 8 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 95%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

38% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 95% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrOver 60% · 5

Diverging

Top 1000Over 63% · 8

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance57.7%

55.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$73.22

Max Loss

-$100.00

173.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.