Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (51%). 1 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Nets vs. Pacers: O/U 229.5
1 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Under (20%) · Under at 50¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 1
⚠️
Avoid
Under
5
Under 20%
$2.3K
$7.23
Research grade
AvoidUnder at 50%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 5 top traders (20%)Underdog side (market favors Over 51%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HO HomeRunHazardCTR | Underavg 48.8¢ | $1.7K | $1.7K | +$6.95 | 54% 17338-14559 (31897) |
0X 0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989 | Overavg 51¢ | $510 | $510 | +$0 | 53% 5696-5031 (10727) |
 VeryLucky888 | Overavg 51¢ | $127.5 | $127.5 | +$0 | 58% 42700-31074 (73774) |
HE Herdonia<$100 | Overavg 51¢ | $7.06 | $7.06 | +$0.21 | 54% 3403-2950 (6353) |
AM ameisgoat11<$100 | Overavg 51¢ | $2.55 | $2.55 | +$0.08 | 52% 7504-6793 (14297) |
Invested
$1,675.21
Value
$1.7K
PnL
+$6.95
Record
54%
17338-14559 (31897)
Invested
$510
Value
$510
PnL
+$0
Record
53%
5696-5031 (10727)
VeryLucky888Invested
$127.5
Value
$127.5
PnL
+$0
Record
58%
42700-31074 (73774)
Invested
$7.06
Value
$7.06
PnL
+$0.21
Record
54%
3403-2950 (6353)
Invested
$2.55
Value
$2.55
PnL
+$0.08
Record
52%
7504-6793 (14297)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
49.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.