Nets vs. Pacers: O/U 228.5

3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Over (75%) · Over at 52¢ · $7K held · ends Nov 1

Over52¢Under48¢Ends Sun, Nov 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 75%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$7.3K

Combined PnL

-$19.92

Smart Money Entry

53.2¢ → 51.5¢

-3% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

AvoidOver at 52%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

3 of 4 top traders (75%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over52%

Under49%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over3 traders

Total Value$793.94

Total Shares1,532

Combined PnL-$20.26

Under1 trader

Total Value$32.94

Total Shares68

Combined PnL+$0.34

Over — 75%Under — 25%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazardARB<$100	Underavg 46.9¢	$6.5K	$6.5K	+$51.24	54% 17338-14559 (31897)
└ Under leg	Underavg 46.9¢	$3.7K	$3.8K	+$128.54
└ Over leg	Overavg 54¢	$2.8K	$2.7K	-$77.31
0X 0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989	Overavg 53¢	$530	$520	-$10	53% 5696-5032 (10728)
VeryLucky888	Overavg 53.5¢	$273.6	$263.54	-$10.06	58% 42718-31089 (73807)
FO Forecastication2CTR<$100	Underavg 48¢	$32.6	$32.94	+$0.34	50% 7127-7172 (14299)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Overavg 53¢	$10.6	$10.4	-$0.2	57% 29247-21632 (50879)

HomeRunHazardARB<$100

Under

Invested

$6,466.07

Value

$6.5K

PnL

+$51.24

Record

54%

17338-14559 (31897)

Both legs:

Under$3,683.0446.9¢+$128.54

Over$2,783.0354¢-$77.31

0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989

Over

Invested

$530

Value

$520

PnL

-$10

Record

53%

5696-5032 (10728)

VeryLucky888

Over

Invested

$273.6

Value

$263.54

PnL

-$10.06

Record

58%

42718-31089 (73807)

Forecastication2CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$32.6

Value

$32.94

PnL

+$0.34

Record

50%

7127-7172 (14299)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Over

Invested

$10.6

Value

$10.4

PnL

-$0.2

Record

57%

29247-21632 (50879)

Research grade

AvoidOver at 52%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Over

3 of 4 top traders (75%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance53.7%

51.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$86.06

Max Loss

-$100.00

186.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.