Nets vs. Pacers
5 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Pacers (63%) · Pacers at 61¢ · $3K held · ends Nov 1
⚠️
Avoid
Pacers
8
Pacers 63%
$3.4K
-$38.13
61¢ → 60.5¢
-1% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
AvoidPacers at 61%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 8 top traders (63%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Fading
-12 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 96%
Freshness
Fresh
9h old
Flip Quality
Watch
1 consensus flip
63% of non-arb traders are on Pacers. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
TA takeormakeCTR | Netsavg 40.3¢ | $1.4K | $1.4K | -$25.98 | 53% 4278-3736 (8014) |
 ComingBack | Pacersavg 61¢ | $1.2K | $1.2K | -$9.5 | 61% 3964-2495 (6459) |
0X 0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989 | Pacersavg 61¢ | $610 | $610 | -$5 | 53% 5694-5029 (10723) |
 VeryLucky888CTR | Netsavg 39¢ | $209.1 | $211.78 | +$2.68 | 58% 42636-31031 (73667) |
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100 | Pacersavg 61¢ | $38.35 | $38.35 | -$0.26 | 57% 29212-21600 (50812) |
RL RLWG<$100 | Pacersavg 61¢ | $24.39 | $24.39 | -$0.2 | 50% 7968-8002 (15970) |
US User7429<$100 | Pacersavg 60¢ | $11.78 | $11.98 | +$0.1 | 55% 8411-6763 (15174) |
HE HerdoniaCTR<$100 | Netsavg 39¢ | $2.02 | $2.02 | +$0.03 | 54% 3403-2950 (6353) |
Invested
$1,386.45
Value
$1.4K
PnL
-$25.98
Record
53%
4278-3736 (8014)
ComingBackInvested
$1,158.99
Value
$1.2K
PnL
-$9.5
Record
61%
3964-2495 (6459)
Invested
$610
Value
$610
PnL
-$5
Record
53%
5694-5029 (10723)
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$209.1
Value
$211.78
PnL
+$2.68
Record
58%
42636-31031 (73667)
Invested
$38.35
Value
$38.35
PnL
-$0.26
Record
57%
29212-21600 (50812)
Invested
$24.39
Value
$24.39
PnL
-$0.2
Record
50%
7968-8002 (15970)
Invested
$11.78
Value
$11.98
PnL
+$0.1
Record
55%
8411-6763 (15174)
Invested
$2.02
Value
$2.02
PnL
+$0.03
Record
54%
3403-2950 (6353)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
60.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.