Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (56%). 5 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Nets vs. Mavericks: O/U 220.5
5 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Under (56%) · Under at 44¢ · $3K held · ends Nov 9
⚠️
Avoid
Under
9
Under 56%
$2.9K
-$6.03
47.4¢ → 43.5¢
-8% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
AvoidUnder at 44%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 9 top traders (56%)Underdog side (market favors Over 56%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 94%
Freshness
Fresh
2h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
56% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 94% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
KA KasonWongCTR | Underavg 51¢ | $1.0K | $869.99 | -$150 | 51% 29-28 (57) |
DV dv-pm | Overavg 49¢ | $644.35 | $742.98 | +$98.63 | 48% 3587-3956 (7543) |
HO HomeRunHazardCTR | Underavg 43¢ | $721.53 | $730.13 | +$8.59 | 54% 19973-16852 (36825) |
OM omnibus-076daa | Overavg 49¢ | $337.51 | $381.39 | +$43.88 | 50% 23449-23463 (46912) |
 nigiri99CTR<$100 | Underavg 49¢ | $98 | $87 | -$11 | 45% 14423-17722 (32145) |
 VeryLucky888<$100 | Overavg 51¢ | $39.35 | $43.6 | +$4.24 | 59% 52363-37089 (89452) |
PA Pan9X<$100 | Overavg 56¢ | $14 | $14.13 | +$0.13 | 52% 27203-24713 (51916) |
NM NM-PCTR<$100 | Underavg 47¢ | $4.28 | $3.96 | -$0.32 | 57% 22335-16609 (38944) |
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100 | Underavg 47¢ | $2.35 | $2.18 | -$0.18 | 52% 9497-8605 (18102) |
Invested
$1,019.99
Value
$869.99
PnL
-$150
Record
51%
29-28 (57)
Invested
$644.35
Value
$742.98
PnL
+$98.63
Record
48%
3587-3956 (7543)
Invested
$721.53
Value
$730.13
PnL
+$8.59
Record
54%
19973-16852 (36825)
Invested
$337.51
Value
$381.39
PnL
+$43.88
Record
50%
23449-23463 (46912)
nigiri99CTR<$100Invested
$98
Value
$87
PnL
-$11
Record
45%
14423-17722 (32145)
VeryLucky888<$100Invested
$39.35
Value
$43.6
PnL
+$4.24
Record
59%
52363-37089 (89452)
Invested
$14
Value
$14.13
PnL
+$0.13
Record
52%
27203-24713 (51916)
Invested
$4.28
Value
$3.96
PnL
-$0.32
Record
57%
22335-16609 (38944)
Invested
$2.35
Value
$2.18
PnL
-$0.18
Record
52%
9497-8605 (18102)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
43.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.