Nets vs. Celtics: O/U 229.5
3 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Over (43%) · Over at 64¢ · $3K held · ended Oct 27
⚠️
Avoid
Over
7
Over 43%
$3.3K
$325.61
54.1¢ → 64¢
+18% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
AvoidOver at 64%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 7 top traders (43%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
TA takeormake | Overavg 54.4¢ | $1.8K | $2.1K | +$314.58 | 54% 3774-3233 (7007) |
HO HomeRunHazardCTR | Underavg 36¢ | $1.1K | $1.1K | +$0 | 54% 16761-14066 (30827) |
 RollAwayTheDew<$100 | Overavg 35¢ | $21.43 | $30.61 | +$9.18 | 53% 301-270 (571) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Underavg 44¢ | $12.66 | $14.51 | +$1.85 | 54% 2744-2368 (5112) |
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100 | Underavg 50¢ | $5 | $5 | +$0 | 48% 500-532 (1032) |
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100 | Underavg 65¢ | $3.34 | $2.57 | -$0.77 | 58% 27917-20560 (48477) |
FO Forecastication2<$100 | Overavg 35¢ | $1.8 | $2.57 | +$0.77 | 50% 6756-6757 (13513) |
Invested
$1,792.29
Value
$2.1K
PnL
+$314.58
Record
54%
3774-3233 (7007)
Invested
$1,114.47
Value
$1.1K
PnL
+$0
Record
54%
16761-14066 (30827)
RollAwayTheDew<$100Invested
$21.43
Value
$30.61
PnL
+$9.18
Record
53%
301-270 (571)
HRTradingCTR<$100Invested
$12.66
Value
$14.51
PnL
+$1.85
Record
54%
2744-2368 (5112)
Invested
$5
Value
$5
PnL
+$0
Record
48%
500-532 (1032)
Invested
$3.34
Value
$2.57
PnL
-$0.77
Record
58%
27917-20560 (48477)
Invested
$1.8
Value
$2.57
PnL
+$0.77
Record
50%
6756-6757 (13513)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
64.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.