Nets vs. Celtics: O/U 227.5
3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Over (50%) · Over at 56¢ · $12K held · ended Oct 27
⚠️
Avoid
Over
6
Over 50%
2 arb excluded
$12.3K
-$209.07
52.1¢ → 56.5¢
+8% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
AvoidOver at 56%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 6 top traders (50%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 92%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
75% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 92% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HO HomeRunHazardARB<$100 | Underavg 44.3¢ | $4.6K | $5.5K | +$978.91 | 54% 16767-14068 (30835) |
| └ Under leg | Underavg 44.3¢ | $3.4K | $4.1K | +$665.09 | |
| └ Over leg | Overavg 37¢ | $1.2K | $1.5K | +$313.83 | |
TA takeormake | Overavg 58.2¢ | $2.5K | $2.6K | +$142.15 | 54% 3774-3233 (7007) |
JU justaluckydudeCTR | Underavg 62.9¢ | $1.9K | $1.6K | -$297.62 | 54% 10411-9036 (19447) |
AW aweso | Overavg 47¢ | $3.5K | $1.6K | -$52.12 | 60% 27-18 (45) |
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh | Overavg 47.4¢ | $824.48 | $823.94 | -$0.54 | 48% 500-532 (1032) |
 HRTradingARB<$100 | Underavg 44.4¢ | $95.47 | $94.4 | -$1.07 | 53% 2815-2479 (5294) |
| └ Under leg | Underavg 44.4¢ | $62.94 | $54.57 | -$8.37 | |
| └ Over leg | Overavg 50.2¢ | $32.53 | $39.82 | +$7.29 | |
SE seeeeeebCTR<$100 | Underavg 36¢ | $1.26 | $0.79 | -$0.47 | 50% 632-639 (1271) |
PA pauleta23CTR<$100 | Underavg 36¢ | $1.26 | $0.79 | -$0.47 | 67% 23068-11460 (34528) |
Invested
$4,564.45
Value
$5.5K
PnL
+$978.91
Record
54%
16767-14068 (30835)
Both legs:
Invested
$2,471.49
Value
$2.6K
PnL
+$142.15
Record
54%
3774-3233 (7007)
Invested
$1,897.16
Value
$1.6K
PnL
-$297.62
Record
54%
10411-9036 (19447)
Invested
$3,474.34
Value
$1.6K
PnL
-$52.12
Record
60%
27-18 (45)
Invested
$824.48
Value
$823.94
PnL
-$0.54
Record
48%
500-532 (1032)
HRTradingARB<$100Invested
$95.47
Value
$94.4
PnL
-$1.07
Record
53%
2815-2479 (5294)
Both legs:
Invested
$1.26
Value
$0.79
PnL
-$0.47
Record
50%
632-639 (1271)
Invested
$1.26
Value
$0.79
PnL
-$0.47
Record
67%
23068-11460 (34528)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
56.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.