Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (56%). 4 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Nets vs. Celtics: O/U 225.5

4 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Over (57%) · Over at 44¢ · $10K held · ended Oct 27

Over44¢Under56¢Ended Tue, Oct 27, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 57%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$10.0K

Combined PnL

$173.61

Smart Money Entry

45¢ → 43.5¢

-3% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

AvoidOver at 44%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

4 of 7 top traders (57%)Underdog side (market favors Under 56%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over44%

Under56%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under3 traders

Total Value$1.9K

Total Shares3,534

Combined PnL+$149.99

Over4 traders

Total Value$2.1K

Total Shares4,463

Combined PnL+$23.62

Under — 43%Over — 57%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazardARB<$100	Underavg 54.5¢	$5.9K	$5.9K	-$11.92	54% 16761-14066 (30827)
└ Under leg	Underavg 54.5¢	$3.8K	$3.8K	+$0.31
└ Over leg	Overavg 45.8¢	$2.1K	$2.1K	-$12.23
Nooserac	Underavg 50¢	$1.5K	$1.6K	+$130.68	52% 5696-5265 (10961)
GA GamblingOdysseyCTR	Overavg 45¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	+$12.5	51% 839-791 (1630)
TA takeormakeCTR	Overavg 45¢	$453.76	$458.85	+$5.1	54% 3774-3233 (7007)
VeryLucky888CTR	Overavg 45¢	$447.77	$453.5	+$5.73	58% 40527-29300 (69827)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	Underavg 51¢	$285.14	$304.71	+$19.57	48% 500-532 (1032)
HRTradingARB<$100	Underavg 55.7¢	$52.03	$55.28	+$3.25	54% 2744-2368 (5112)
└ Under leg	Underavg 55.7¢	$32.1	$31.39	-$0.71
└ Over leg	Overavg 38¢	$19.93	$23.89	+$3.96
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Underavg 55.1¢	$51.71	$51.74	-$0.26	58% 27917-20560 (48477)
NA NatoAlfistaCTR<$100	Overavg 45¢	$25.74	$26.03	+$0.29	50% 3681-3661 (7342)

HomeRunHazardARB<$100

Under

Invested

$5,899.18

Value

$5.9K

PnL

-$11.92

Record

54%

16761-14066 (30827)

Both legs:

Under$3,816.3954.5¢+$0.31

Over$2,082.7945.8¢-$12.23

Nooserac

Under

Invested

$1,452

Value

$1.6K

PnL

+$130.68

Record

52%

5696-5265 (10961)

GamblingOdysseyCTR

Over

Invested

$1,124.99

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$12.5

Record

51%

839-791 (1630)

takeormakeCTR

Over

Invested

$453.76

Value

$458.85

PnL

+$5.1

Record

54%

3774-3233 (7007)

VeryLucky888CTR

Over

Invested

$447.77

Value

$453.5

PnL

+$5.73

Record

58%

40527-29300 (69827)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

Under

Invested

$285.14

Value

$304.71

PnL

+$19.57

Record

48%

500-532 (1032)

HRTradingARB<$100

Under

Invested

$52.03

Value

$55.28

PnL

+$3.25

Record

54%

2744-2368 (5112)

Both legs:

Under$32.155.7¢-$0.71

Over$19.9338¢+$3.96

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Under

Invested

$51.71

Value

$51.74

PnL

-$0.26

Record

58%

27917-20560 (48477)

NatoAlfistaCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$25.74

Value

$26.03

PnL

+$0.29

Record

50%

3681-3661 (7342)

Research grade

AvoidOver at 44%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Over

4 of 7 top traders (57%)Underdog side (market favors Under 56%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance45.7%

43.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$118.65

Max Loss

-$100.00

218.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.