Nets vs. Celtics: O/U 223.5

4 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Under (57%) · Under at 53¢ · $51K held · ends Oct 27

Over48¢Under52¢Ends Tue, Oct 27, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 57%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$50.8K

Combined PnL

-$271.76

Smart Money Entry

52.2¢ → 52.5¢

+1% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 53%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

4 of 7 top traders (57%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over48%

Under53%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under4 traders

Total Value$32.4K

Total Shares62,404

Combined PnL-$201.72

Over3 traders

Total Value$11.7K

Total Shares24,387

Combined PnL-$70.04

Under — 57%Over — 43%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

40% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Over) and the top 1000 (4 on Under) disagree here.

whaleUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrOver 60% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Under 50% · 4

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
MO monkeymashingkeyboard	Underavg 52.2¢	$26.1K	$26.0K	-$100	54% 568-482 (1050)
IA ianf2026CTR	Overavg 48¢	$8.2K	$8.2K	-$85.04	47% 83-93 (176)
HO HomeRunHazardARB<$100	Overavg 47¢	$6.5K	$6.6K	+$97.71	54% 16740-14044 (30784)
└ Over leg	Overavg 47¢	$3.8K	$4.0K	+$126.25
└ Under leg	Underavg 52.1¢	$2.6K	$2.6K	-$28.54
RollAwayTheDew	Underavg 52.5¢	$4.8K	$4.7K	-$88.75	53% 299-268 (567)
FO Forecastication2CTR	Overavg 48¢	$2.1K	$2.1K	+$0	50% 6745-6755 (13500)
WO woshikd99	Underavg 52¢	$1.6K	$1.5K	-$15.01	55% 24-20 (44)
PP ppku6298CTR	Overavg 48¢	$1.4K	$1.5K	+$15	42% 65-91 (156)
MO mooseborzoii	Underavg 51¢	$104.19	$106.23	+$2.04	50% 1112-1110 (2222)
LE LeLynxMalynxARB<$100	Underavg 53.9¢	$81.92	$81.52	+$1.24	58% 27870-20508 (48378)
└ Under leg	Underavg 53.9¢	$44.18	$42.64	+$0.1
└ Over leg	Overavg 46.6¢	$37.74	$38.88	+$1.14

monkeymashingkeyboard

Under

Invested

$26,099.98

Value

$26.0K

PnL

-$100

Record

54%

568-482 (1050)

ianf2026CTR

Over

Invested

$8,163.84

Value

$8.2K

PnL

-$85.04

Record

47%

83-93 (176)

HomeRunHazardARB<$100

Over

Invested

$6,479.41

Value

$6.6K

PnL

+$97.71

Record

54%

16740-14044 (30784)

Both legs:

Over$3,847.1847¢+$126.25

Under$2,632.2252.1¢-$28.54

RollAwayTheDew

Under

Invested

$4,825.06

Value

$4.7K

PnL

-$88.75

Record

53%

299-268 (567)

Forecastication2CTR

Over

Invested

$2,101.92

Value

$2.1K

PnL

+$0

Record

50%

6745-6755 (13500)

woshikd99

Under

Invested

$1,561.56

Value

$1.5K

PnL

-$15.01

Record

55%

24-20 (44)

ppku6298CTR

Over

Invested

$1,440

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$15

Record

42%

65-91 (156)

mooseborzoii

Under

Invested

$104.19

Value

$106.23

PnL

+$2.04

Record

50%

1112-1110 (2222)

LeLynxMalynxARB<$100

Under

Invested

$81.92

Value

$81.52

PnL

+$1.24

Record

58%

27870-20508 (48378)

Both legs:

Under$44.1853.9¢+$0.1

Over$37.7446.6¢+$1.14

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 53%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Under

4 of 7 top traders (57%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

40% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Over) and the top 1000 (4 on Under) disagree here.

whaleUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrOver 60% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Under 50% · 4

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance54.7%

52.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$82.67

Max Loss

-$100.00

182.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.