Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (51%). 4 of 4 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Nets vs. Celtics: O/U 221.5
4 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Under (100%) · Under at 50¢ · $5K held · ends Oct 27
⚠️
Avoid
Under
4
Under 100%
1 arb excluded
$5.4K
$122.3
48.7¢ → 49.5¢
+2% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
AvoidUnder at 50%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 4 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors Over 51%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HO HomeRunHazardCTR | Underavg 48.7¢ | $3.8K | $3.9K | +$88.7 | 54% 16731-14038 (30769) |
HI hi774cCTR | Underavg 48¢ | $806.47 | $840.07 | +$33.6 | 52% 4642-4346 (8988) |
0X 0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989CTR | Underavg 50¢ | $500 | $500 | +$0 | 53% 5466-4812 (10278) |
LE LeLynxMalynxARB<$100 | Underavg 48.7¢ | $91.81 | $93.8 | +$1.99 | 58% 27868-20501 (48369) |
| └ Under leg | Underavg 48.7¢ | $60.64 | $62.31 | +$1.67 | |
| └ Over leg | Overavg 49.5¢ | $31.17 | $31.49 | +$0.32 | |
FO Forecastication2CTR<$100 | Underavg 50¢ | $10 | $10 | +$0 | 50% 6745-6752 (13497) |
Invested
$3,817.49
Value
$3.9K
PnL
+$88.7
Record
54%
16731-14038 (30769)
Invested
$806.47
Value
$840.07
PnL
+$33.6
Record
52%
4642-4346 (8988)
Invested
$500
Value
$500
PnL
+$0
Record
53%
5466-4812 (10278)
Invested
$91.81
Value
$93.8
PnL
+$1.99
Record
58%
27868-20501 (48369)
Both legs:
Invested
$10
Value
$10
PnL
+$0
Record
50%
6745-6752 (13497)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
49.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.