Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (90%). 4 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Nets vs. Celtics: O/U 217.5
4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Under (67%) · Under at 10¢ · $29K held · ended Oct 27
⚠️
Avoid
Under
6
Under 67%
1 arb excluded
$28.8K
$139.15
47.8¢ → 10¢
-79% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
AvoidUnder at 10%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors Over 90%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
KA KaneAnalyticsCTR | Underavg 47.9¢ | $14.5K | $15.1K | +$640.34 | 53% 346-311 (657) |
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh | Overavg 52¢ | $12.7K | $12.2K | -$492.43 | 48% 500-532 (1032) |
HO HomeRunHazardARB<$100 | Overavg 54.2¢ | $1.4K | $1.4K | +$22.75 | 54% 16761-14066 (30827) |
| └ Over leg | Overavg 54.2¢ | $888.61 | $819.44 | -$69.17 | |
| └ Under leg | Underavg 42.1¢ | $487.99 | $579.91 | +$91.92 | |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Underavg 42.6¢ | $50.01 | $33.4 | -$16.61 | 54% 2744-2368 (5112) |
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100 | Underavg 39¢ | $23.1 | $29.61 | +$6.52 | 58% 27917-20560 (48477) |
JU justaluckydudeCTR<$100 | Underavg 43¢ | $16.34 | $19 | +$2.66 | 54% 10411-9036 (19447) |
TA takeormake<$100 | Overavg 61¢ | $7.32 | $6 | -$1.32 | 54% 3774-3233 (7007) |
Invested
$14,471.93
Value
$15.1K
PnL
+$640.34
Record
53%
346-311 (657)
Invested
$12,719.58
Value
$12.2K
PnL
-$492.43
Record
48%
500-532 (1032)
Invested
$1,376.6
Value
$1.4K
PnL
+$22.75
Record
54%
16761-14066 (30827)
Both legs:
HRTradingCTR<$100Invested
$50.01
Value
$33.4
PnL
-$16.61
Record
54%
2744-2368 (5112)
Invested
$23.1
Value
$29.61
PnL
+$6.52
Record
58%
27917-20560 (48477)
Invested
$16.34
Value
$19
PnL
+$2.66
Record
54%
10411-9036 (19447)
Invested
$7.32
Value
$6
PnL
-$1.32
Record
54%
3774-3233 (7007)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
10.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.