Nets vs. Celtics: O/U 215.5
2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Over (40%) · Over at 68¢ · $4K held · ended Oct 27
⚠️
Avoid
Over
5
Over 40%
$4.1K
$15.73
67.3¢ → 68¢
+1% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
AvoidOver at 68%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 5 top traders (40%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
40% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
TA takeormake | Overavg 67.2¢ | $3.1K | $3.2K | +$11.64 | 54% 3774-3233 (7007) |
 scootergeneCTR | Underavg 33¢ | $663.8 | $643.68 | -$10.06 | 54% 368-310 (678) |
 RollAwayTheDewCTR | Underavg 33¢ | $310.33 | $310.33 | +$14.11 | 53% 301-270 (571) |
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100 | Underavg 32.8¢ | $12.62 | $12.68 | -$0.13 | 58% 27917-20560 (48477) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Overavg 65¢ | $4.42 | $4.56 | +$0.17 | 54% 2744-2368 (5112) |
Invested
$3,116.14
Value
$3.2K
PnL
+$11.64
Record
54%
3774-3233 (7007)
scootergeneCTRInvested
$663.8
Value
$643.68
PnL
-$10.06
Record
54%
368-310 (678)
RollAwayTheDewCTRInvested
$310.33
Value
$310.33
PnL
+$14.11
Record
53%
301-270 (571)
Invested
$12.62
Value
$12.68
PnL
-$0.13
Record
58%
27917-20560 (48477)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$4.42
Value
$4.56
PnL
+$0.17
Record
54%
2744-2368 (5112)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
68.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.