Nets vs. Celtics: O/U 213.5
2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Over (40%) · Over at 74¢ · $9K held · ended Oct 27
⚠️
Avoid
Over
5
Over 40%
$9.2K
-$56.28
72¢ → 73.5¢
+2% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
AvoidOver at 74%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 5 top traders (40%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
40% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
TA takeormake | Overavg 72¢ | $11.6K | $8.3K | -$57.83 | 54% 3774-3233 (7007) |
 RollAwayTheDewCTR | Underavg 28¢ | $775.85 | $775.85 | +$0 | 53% 301-270 (571) |
EN ENDBOSSLLCCTR | Underavg 28¢ | $159.38 | $159.38 | +$0 | 42% 254-357 (611) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Overavg 68.6¢ | $26.89 | $28.24 | +$1.54 | 54% 2744-2368 (5112) |
FO Forecastication2CTR<$100 | Underavg 28.5¢ | $6.32 | $6.33 | +$0.01 | 50% 6756-6757 (13513) |
Invested
$11,565.91
Value
$8.3K
PnL
-$57.83
Record
54%
3774-3233 (7007)
RollAwayTheDewCTRInvested
$775.85
Value
$775.85
PnL
+$0
Record
53%
301-270 (571)
Invested
$159.38
Value
$159.38
PnL
+$0
Record
42%
254-357 (611)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$26.89
Value
$28.24
PnL
+$1.54
Record
54%
2744-2368 (5112)
Invested
$6.32
Value
$6.33
PnL
+$0.01
Record
50%
6756-6757 (13513)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
73.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.