Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Celtics, while the market favors Nets (65%). 6 of 10 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Spread: Celtics (-6.5)

6 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Celtics (60%) · Celtics at 35¢ · $20K held · ended Oct 27

Celtics35¢Nets65¢Ended Tue, Oct 27, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Celtics

Consensus Traders

Celtics 60%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$20.1K

Combined PnL

-$843.97

Smart Money Entry

51.5¢ → 35¢

-32% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

AvoidCeltics at 35%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Celtics

6 of 10 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors Nets 65%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Celtics35%

Nets65%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Nets4 traders

Total Value$5.8K

Total Shares11,065

Combined PnL-$149.2

Celtics6 traders

Total Value$7.4K

Total Shares15,466

Combined PnL-$694.77

Nets — 40%Celtics — 60%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
aibaby	Netsavg 53.5¢	$5.8K	$5.7K	-$159.58	51% 84-81 (165)
GA gagarin59ARB<$100	Netsavg 47.1¢	$5.0K	$5.4K	+$389.96	52% 639-583 (1222)
└ Nets leg	Netsavg 47.1¢	$3.0K	$3.2K	+$278.92
└ Celtics leg	Celticsavg 46¢	$2.0K	$2.2K	+$111.04
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	Celticsavg 53.2¢	$6.1K	$5.1K	-$928.64	54% 16761-14066 (30827)
AW awesoCTR	Celticsavg 47¢	$1.4K	$1.6K	+$195.16	60% 27-18 (45)
AN Anon455ARB<$100	Netsavg 45.9¢	$1.0K	$906.86	-$100.59	56% 2590-2035 (4625)
└ Nets leg	Netsavg 45.9¢	$673.7	$542.88	-$130.82
└ Celtics leg	Celticsavg 57.8¢	$333.75	$363.98	+$30.23
TA takeormakeARB<$100	Netsavg 51.7¢	$699.53	$698.25	-$1.28	54% 3774-3233 (7007)
└ Nets leg	Netsavg 51.7¢	$382.85	$407.55	+$24.7
└ Celtics leg	Celticsavg 49¢	$316.68	$290.7	-$25.98
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR	Celticsavg 46¢	$488.95	$532.47	+$43.52	48% 500-532 (1032)
JU justaluckydude<$100	Netsavg 52.8¢	$63.4	$62.4	-$1	54% 10411-9036 (19447)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Celticsavg 49.2¢	$50.9	$46.15	-$4.75	54% 2744-2368 (5112)
NA NatoAlfistaCTR<$100	Celticsavg 57¢	$30.21	$29.94	-$0.27	50% 3681-3661 (7342)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Netsavg 27.1¢	$15.58	$23.73	+$8.14	58% 27917-20560 (48477)
FO forecastication4<$100	Netsavg 27¢	$3.8	$7.04	+$3.24	49% 1112-1141 (2253)
SH shoemanhereCTR<$100	Celticsavg 46¢	$4.6	$4.8	+$0.2	56% 7033-5442 (12475)

aibaby

Nets

Invested

$5,822.5

Value

$5.7K

PnL

-$159.58

Record

51%

84-81 (165)

gagarin59ARB<$100

Nets

Invested

$5,004.45

Value

$5.4K

PnL

+$389.96

Record

52%

639-583 (1222)

Both legs:

Nets$2,961.3647.1¢+$278.92

Celtics$2,043.0946¢+$111.04

HomeRunHazardCTR

Celtics

Invested

$6,055.09

Value

$5.1K

PnL

-$928.64

Record

54%

16761-14066 (30827)

awesoCTR

Celtics

Invested

$1,424.91

Value

$1.6K

PnL

+$195.16

Record

60%

27-18 (45)

Anon455ARB<$100

Nets

Invested

$1,007.45

Value

$906.86

PnL

-$100.59

Record

56%

2590-2035 (4625)

Both legs:

Nets$673.745.9¢-$130.82

Celtics$333.7557.8¢+$30.23

takeormakeARB<$100

Nets

Invested

$699.53

Value

$698.25

PnL

-$1.28

Record

54%

3774-3233 (7007)

Both legs:

Nets$382.8551.7¢+$24.7

Celtics$316.6849¢-$25.98

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR

Celtics

Invested

$488.95

Value

$532.47

PnL

+$43.52

Record

48%

500-532 (1032)

justaluckydude<$100

Nets

Invested

$63.4

Value

$62.4

PnL

-$1

Record

54%

10411-9036 (19447)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Celtics

Invested

$50.9

Value

$46.15

PnL

-$4.75

Record

54%

2744-2368 (5112)

NatoAlfistaCTR<$100

Celtics

Invested

$30.21

Value

$29.94

PnL

-$0.27

Record

50%

3681-3661 (7342)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Nets

Invested

$15.58

Value

$23.73

PnL

+$8.14

Record

58%

27917-20560 (48477)

forecastication4<$100

Nets

Invested

$3.8

Value

$7.04

PnL

+$3.24

Record

49%

1112-1141 (2253)

shoemanhereCTR<$100

Celtics

Invested

$4.6

Value

$4.8

PnL

+$0.2

Record

56%

7033-5442 (12475)

Research grade

AvoidCeltics at 35%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Celtics

6 of 10 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors Nets 65%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Celtics wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance37.2%

35.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$169.16

Max Loss

-$100.00

269.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.