Spread: Celtics (-4.5)
3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Nets (75%) · Nets at 52¢ · $16K held · ended Oct 27
⚠️
Avoid
Nets
4
Nets 75%
2 arb excluded
$15.5K
$127.38
44.2¢ → 51.5¢
+17% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
AvoidNets at 52%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 4 top traders (75%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HO HomeRunHazardARB<$100 | Celticsavg 57.1¢ | $5.9K | $5.8K | -$145.38 | 54% 16767-14068 (30835) |
| └ Celtics leg | Celticsavg 57.1¢ | $4.4K | $4.3K | -$161.88 | |
| └ Nets leg | Netsavg 44.5¢ | $1.5K | $1.5K | +$16.5 | |
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh | Netsavg 45¢ | $4.2K | $4.2K | +$1.6 | 48% 500-532 (1032) |
TA takeormakeARB<$100 | Netsavg 53.2¢ | $3.4K | $3.0K | -$378.15 | 54% 3774-3233 (7007) |
| └ Celtics leg | Celticsavg 59¢ | $1.7K | $1.6K | -$113.27 | |
| └ Nets leg | Netsavg 53.2¢ | $1.7K | $1.4K | -$264.88 | |
JU justaluckydude | Netsavg 44.1¢ | $1.5K | $1.6K | +$25.67 | 54% 10411-9036 (19447) |
GA gagarin59 | Netsavg 41¢ | $884.94 | $971.5 | +$86.56 | 52% 639-583 (1222) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Celticsavg 30¢ | $22.1 | $35.67 | +$13.57 | 53% 2815-2479 (5294) |
Invested
$5,919.92
Value
$5.8K
PnL
-$145.38
Record
54%
16767-14068 (30835)
Both legs:
Invested
$4,169.39
Value
$4.2K
PnL
+$1.6
Record
48%
500-532 (1032)
Invested
$3,389.01
Value
$3.0K
PnL
-$378.15
Record
54%
3774-3233 (7007)
Both legs:
Invested
$1,538.64
Value
$1.6K
PnL
+$25.67
Record
54%
10411-9036 (19447)
Invested
$884.94
Value
$971.5
PnL
+$86.56
Record
52%
639-583 (1222)
HRTradingCTR<$100Invested
$22.1
Value
$35.67
PnL
+$13.57
Record
53%
2815-2479 (5294)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
51.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.