Spread: Celtics (-16.5)
2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Nets (40%) · Nets at 62¢ · $5K held · ends Oct 27
⚠️
Avoid
Nets
5
Nets 40%
$5.2K
-$39.7
63¢ → 61.5¢
-2% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
AvoidNets at 62%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 5 top traders (40%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
40% of non-arb traders are on Nets. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SU SunlineTicker | Netsavg 63¢ | $4.1K | $4.0K | -$61.11 | 62% 4008-2448 (6456) |
FO Forecastication2CTR | Celticsavg 37.1¢ | $505.46 | $517.83 | +$12.37 | 50% 6747-6755 (13502) |
 RollAwayTheDewCTR | Celticsavg 37¢ | $450.91 | $462.66 | +$11.75 | 53% 300-270 (570) |
 RN1 | Netsavg 64¢ | $160 | $155 | -$3.75 | 54% 55386-47442 (102828) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Celticsavg 36¢ | $25.68 | $26.72 | +$1.04 | 54% 2639-2268 (4907) |
Invested
$4,051.08
Value
$4.0K
PnL
-$61.11
Record
62%
4008-2448 (6456)
Invested
$505.46
Value
$517.83
PnL
+$12.37
Record
50%
6747-6755 (13502)
RollAwayTheDewCTRInvested
$450.91
Value
$462.66
PnL
+$11.75
Record
53%
300-270 (570)
RN1Invested
$160
Value
$155
PnL
-$3.75
Record
54%
55386-47442 (102828)
HRTradingCTR<$100Invested
$25.68
Value
$26.72
PnL
+$1.04
Record
54%
2639-2268 (4907)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
61.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.