Spread: Celtics (-15.5)

3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Nets (50%) · Nets at 59¢ · $6K held · ends Oct 27

Celtics42¢Nets58¢Ends Tue, Oct 27, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Nets

Consensus Traders

Nets 50%

Total Value

$5.9K

Combined PnL

-$60.46

Smart Money Entry

60¢ → 58.5¢

-2% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

AvoidNets at 59%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Nets

3 of 6 top traders (50%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Celtics42%

Nets59%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Nets3 traders

Total Value$3.6K

Total Shares5,925

Combined PnL-$28.74

Celtics3 traders

Total Value$2.3K

Total Shares5,773

Combined PnL-$31.72

Nets — 50%Celtics — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on Nets. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNets 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrCeltics 100% · 2

Diverging

Hand-pickedNets 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Nets 50% · 4

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazard	Netsavg 60¢	$5.4K	$3.2K	-$27.11	54% 16754-14059 (30813)
SU SunlineTickerCTR	Celticsavg 40.1¢	$2.2K	$2.2K	-$30.9	62% 4008-2448 (6456)
RN1	Netsavg 60¢	$366.67	$365	-$1.67	54% 55386-47442 (102828)
FO Forecastication2CTR<$100	Celticsavg 41¢	$68.06	$67.23	-$0.83	50% 6747-6755 (13502)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Netsavg 60¢	$53.33	$53.37	+$0.04	58% 27884-20523 (48407)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Celticsavg 40¢	$1.04	$1.05	+$0.01	54% 2639-2268 (4907)

HomeRunHazard

Nets

Invested

$5,358.5

Value

$3.2K

PnL

-$27.11

Record

54%

16754-14059 (30813)

SunlineTickerCTR

Celtics

Invested

$2,244.49

Value

$2.2K

PnL

-$30.9

Record

62%

4008-2448 (6456)

RN1

Nets

Invested

$366.67

Value

$365

PnL

-$1.67

Record

54%

55386-47442 (102828)

Forecastication2CTR<$100

Celtics

Invested

$68.06

Value

$67.23

PnL

-$0.83

Record

50%

6747-6755 (13502)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Nets

Invested

$53.33

Value

$53.37

PnL

+$0.04

Record

58%

27884-20523 (48407)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Celtics

Invested

$1.04

Value

$1.05

PnL

+$0.01

Record

54%

2639-2268 (4907)

Research grade

AvoidNets at 59%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Nets

3 of 6 top traders (50%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on Nets. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNets 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrCeltics 100% · 2

Diverging

Hand-pickedNets 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Nets 50% · 4

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Nets wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance60.7%

58.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$64.73

Max Loss

-$100.00

164.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.