Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Celtics, while the market favors Nets (56%). 4 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Spread: Celtics (-14.5)
4 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Celtics (57%) · Celtics at 44¢ · $2K held · ends Oct 27
⚠️
Avoid
Celtics
7
Celtics 57%
$1.7K
-$4.43
42.7¢ → 43.5¢
+2% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
AvoidCeltics at 44%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 7 top traders (57%)Underdog side (market favors Nets 56%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 93%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
67% of non-arb traders are on Celtics. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 93% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 RollAwayTheDewCTR | Celticsavg 42.8¢ | $888.75 | $892.25 | +$3.5 | 53% 299-268 (567) |
 RN1 | Netsavg 58¢ | $400.27 | $390.08 | -$10.19 | 54% 55353-47409 (102762) |
 VeryLucky888 | Netsavg 57¢ | $285 | $225.03 | -$1.99 | 58% 40420-29201 (69621) |
FO Forecastication2CTR | Celticsavg 42¢ | $102.48 | $104.92 | +$2.44 | 50% 6745-6755 (13500) |
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100 | Celticsavg 40.9¢ | $61.07 | $62.96 | +$1.89 | 58% 27870-20510 (48380) |
NA NatoAlfista<$100 | Netsavg 57¢ | $22.23 | $22.03 | -$0.2 | 50% 3675-3651 (7326) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Celticsavg 42.2¢ | $6.33 | $6.45 | +$0.12 | 54% 2609-2230 (4839) |
RollAwayTheDewCTRInvested
$888.75
Value
$892.25
PnL
+$3.5
Record
53%
299-268 (567)
RN1Invested
$400.27
Value
$390.08
PnL
-$10.19
Record
54%
55353-47409 (102762)
VeryLucky888Invested
$285
Value
$225.03
PnL
-$1.99
Record
58%
40420-29201 (69621)
Invested
$102.48
Value
$104.92
PnL
+$2.44
Record
50%
6745-6755 (13500)
Invested
$61.07
Value
$62.96
PnL
+$1.89
Record
58%
27870-20510 (48380)
Invested
$22.23
Value
$22.03
PnL
-$0.2
Record
50%
3675-3651 (7326)
HRTradingCTR<$100Invested
$6.33
Value
$6.45
PnL
+$0.12
Record
54%
2609-2230 (4839)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
43.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.