Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Celtics, while the market favors Nets (55%). 6 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Spread: Celtics (-13.5)
6 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Celtics (100%) · Celtics at 46¢ · $6K held · ends Oct 27
⚠️
Avoid
Celtics
6
Celtics 100%
1 arb excluded
$6.3K
$11
45.9¢ → 45.5¢
-1% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
AvoidCeltics at 46%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 6 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors Nets 55%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HO HomeRunHazardCTR | Celticsavg 46¢ | $4.6K | $4.6K | +$0 | 54% 16741-14048 (30789) |
 RollAwayTheDewCTR | Celticsavg 46¢ | $731.43 | $731.43 | -$0 | 53% 299-268 (567) |
QW QWUERHAIUKSJNFSNCFCTR | Celticsavg 45¢ | $319.5 | $326.6 | -$10.65 | 54% 368-319 (687) |
TA takeormakeCTR | Celticsavg 44¢ | $278.96 | $301.15 | +$22.19 | 54% 3774-3233 (7007) |
 RN1CTR | Celticsavg 46¢ | $126.98 | $127.2 | +$0.23 | 54% 55353-47409 (102762) |
LE LeLynxMalynxARB<$100 | Celticsavg 44.3¢ | $77.43 | $79.12 | +$1.69 | 58% 27870-20510 (48380) |
| └ Celtics leg | Celticsavg 44.3¢ | $52.31 | $54.28 | +$1.97 | |
| └ Nets leg | Netsavg 54.6¢ | $25.12 | $24.84 | -$0.28 | |
 VeryLucky888CTR | Celticsavg 46¢ | $230 | $70.07 | -$0.77 | 58% 40420-29201 (69621) |
Invested
$4,641
Value
$4.6K
PnL
+$0
Record
54%
16741-14048 (30789)
RollAwayTheDewCTRInvested
$731.43
Value
$731.43
PnL
-$0
Record
53%
299-268 (567)
Invested
$319.5
Value
$326.6
PnL
-$10.65
Record
54%
368-319 (687)
Invested
$278.96
Value
$301.15
PnL
+$22.19
Record
54%
3774-3233 (7007)
RN1CTRInvested
$126.98
Value
$127.2
PnL
+$0.23
Record
54%
55353-47409 (102762)
Invested
$77.43
Value
$79.12
PnL
+$1.69
Record
58%
27870-20510 (48380)
Both legs:
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$230
Value
$70.07
PnL
-$0.77
Record
58%
40420-29201 (69621)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
45.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.