Spread: Celtics (-10.5)

3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Celtics (75%) · Celtics at 54¢ · $805 held · ends Oct 27

Celtics54¢Nets46¢Ends Tue, Oct 27, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Celtics

Consensus Traders

Celtics 75%

Total Value

$805.09

Combined PnL

-$79.24

Smart Money Entry

55.7¢ → 53.5¢

-4% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

AvoidCeltics at 54%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Celtics

3 of 4 top traders (75%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Celtics54%

Nets47%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Celtics3 traders

Total Value$802.76

Total Shares1,564

Combined PnL-$79.31

Nets1 trader

Total Value$2.33

Total Shares5

Combined PnL+$0.08

Celtics — 75%Nets — 25%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
QW QWUERHAIUKSJNFSNCF	Celticsavg 56¢	$700	$625	-$75	54% 368-319 (687)
HO HomeRunHazard	Celticsavg 54.5¢	$156.17	$153.26	-$2.91	54% 16692-14013 (30705)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Celticsavg 55¢	$24.64	$24.5	-$1.4	58% 27838-20469 (48307)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Netsavg 45¢	$2.25	$2.33	+$0.08	54% 2513-2131 (4644)

QWUERHAIUKSJNFSNCF

Celtics

Invested

$700

Value

$625

PnL

-$75

Record

54%

368-319 (687)

HomeRunHazard

Celtics

Invested

$156.17

Value

$153.26

PnL

-$2.91

Record

54%

16692-14013 (30705)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Celtics

Invested

$24.64

Value

$24.5

PnL

-$1.4

Record

58%

27838-20469 (48307)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Nets

Invested

$2.25

Value

$2.33

PnL

+$0.08

Record

54%

2513-2131 (4644)

Research grade

AvoidCeltics at 54%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Celtics

3 of 4 top traders (75%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Celtics wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance55.7%

53.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$79.40

Max Loss

-$100.00

179.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.