Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (51%). 1 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Nets vs. Celtics: 1H O/U 115.5
1 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Over (20%) · Over at 49¢ · $4K held · ends Oct 27
⚠️
Avoid
Over
5
Over 20%
$3.9K
-$51.88
Research grade
AvoidOver at 49%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 5 top traders (20%)Underdog side (market favors Under 51%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
UN UnknownpoluyCTR | Overavg 45.8¢ | $2.0K | $1.9K | -$143.51 | 44% 87-111 (198) |
0X 0x9f15613ebf1f36d4bc679e1211d1fc567cf9bdb3 | Underavg 54¢ | $1.7K | $1.8K | +$108.5 | 50% 2447-2441 (4888) |
FO forecastication4 | Underavg 55¢ | $192.74 | $182.3 | -$10.44 | 49% 1110-1141 (2251) |
 poshposh<$100 | Underavg 55¢ | $43.09 | $45.05 | +$1.96 | 60% 9159-6104 (15263) |
 VeryLucky888 | Underavg 54¢ | $270 | $6.1 | -$8.38 | 58% 40486-29261 (69747) |
Invested
$2,000
Value
$1.9K
PnL
-$143.51
Record
44%
87-111 (198)
Invested
$1,673.93
Value
$1.8K
PnL
+$108.5
Record
50%
2447-2441 (4888)
Invested
$192.74
Value
$182.3
PnL
-$10.44
Record
49%
1110-1141 (2251)
poshposh<$100Invested
$43.09
Value
$45.05
PnL
+$1.96
Record
60%
9159-6104 (15263)
VeryLucky888Invested
$270
Value
$6.1
PnL
-$8.38
Record
58%
40486-29261 (69747)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
49.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.