Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (55%). 3 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Nets vs. Celtics: 1H O/U 113.5

3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Under (50%) · Under at 46¢ · $1K held · ends Oct 27

Over55¢Under45¢Ends Tue, Oct 27, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 50%

Total Value

$1.4K

Combined PnL

$37.69

Smart Money Entry

48.1¢ → 45.5¢

-5% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 46%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

3 of 6 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Over 55%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over55%

Under46%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over3 traders

Total Value$597.72

Total Shares1,109

Combined PnL+$39.03

Under3 traders

Total Value$764.14

Total Shares1,592

Combined PnL-$1.34

Over — 50%Under — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
TA takeormake	Overavg 51.4¢	$492.96	$522.88	+$29.92	54% 3774-3233 (7007)
RollAwayTheDewCTR	Underavg 48.7¢	$428.33	$404.8	-$23.53	53% 301-270 (571)
FO forecastication4CTR	Underavg 47¢	$206.79	$222.19	+$15.4	49% 1110-1141 (2251)
BA BayupatiCTR	Underavg 48¢	$130.36	$137.15	+$6.79	50% 184-181 (365)
0X 0x9f15613ebf1f36d4bc679e1211d1fc567cf9bdb3<$100	Overavg 47¢	$62.57	$65.89	+$3.33	50% 2447-2441 (4888)
VeryLucky888	Overavg 53¢	$381.82	$8.95	+$5.79	58% 40486-29261 (69747)

takeormake

Over

Invested

$492.96

Value

$522.88

PnL

+$29.92

Record

54%

3774-3233 (7007)

RollAwayTheDewCTR

Under

Invested

$428.33

Value

$404.8

PnL

-$23.53

Record

53%

301-270 (571)

forecastication4CTR

Under

Invested

$206.79

Value

$222.19

PnL

+$15.4

Record

49%

1110-1141 (2251)

BayupatiCTR

Under

Invested

$130.36

Value

$137.15

PnL

+$6.79

Record

50%

184-181 (365)

0x9f15613ebf1f36d4bc679e1211d1fc567cf9bdb3<$100

Over

Invested

$62.57

Value

$65.89

PnL

+$3.33

Record

50%

2447-2441 (4888)

VeryLucky888

Over

Invested

$381.82

Value

$8.95

PnL

+$5.79

Record

58%

40486-29261 (69747)

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 46%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Under

3 of 6 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Over 55%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance47.7%

45.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$109.45

Max Loss

-$100.00

209.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.