Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Nets, while the market favors Celtics (82%). 2 of 4 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Nets vs. Celtics
2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Nets (50%) · Nets at 18¢ · $1K held · ends Oct 27
⚠️
Avoid
Nets
4
Nets 50%
$1.0K
-$91.61
18¢ → 18¢
+0% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
AvoidNets at 18%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Longshots (0.05–0.30) lost −29.5 % a trade pooled (n 1,625; −22 % in spring, −35 % in October): the strongest effect in the backtests.
- BasketballBasketball lost in both windows: −12.0 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −22 to −2), −9.2 % in October.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 4 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Celtics 82%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL FlaznorpCTR | Netsavg 18¢ | $1.1K | $1.0K | -$91.78 | 51% 12449-11898 (24347) |
 0xheavy888<$100 | Celticsavg 83¢ | $20 | $16.7 | +$0.1 | 56% 6781-5428 (12209) |
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100 | Celticsavg 81¢ | $12.96 | $13.12 | +$0.16 | 57% 27306-20190 (47496) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Netsavg 17.5¢ | $3.07 | $2.98 | -$0.1 | 54% 2345-1973 (4318) |
Invested
$1,099.93
Value
$1.0K
PnL
-$91.78
Record
51%
12449-11898 (24347)
0xheavy888<$100Invested
$20
Value
$16.7
PnL
+$0.1
Record
56%
6781-5428 (12209)
Invested
$12.96
Value
$13.12
PnL
+$0.16
Record
57%
27306-20190 (47496)
HRTradingCTR<$100Invested
$3.07
Value
$2.98
PnL
-$0.1
Record
54%
2345-1973 (4318)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
18.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.