Hawks vs. Pelicans: O/U 242.5

3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Under (50%) · Under at 58¢ · $11K held · ends Oct 31

Over42¢Under58¢Ends Sat, Oct 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 50%

Total Value

$11.3K

Combined PnL

$621.96

Smart Money Entry

53.1¢ → 58¢

+9% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 58%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

3 of 6 top traders (50%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over42%

Under58%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under3 traders

Total Value$6.3K

Total Shares11,049

Combined PnL+$418.56

Over3 traders

Total Value$5.0K

Total Shares10,163

Combined PnL+$203.4

Under — 50%Over — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazard	Underavg 53.1¢	$5.8K	$6.2K	+$422.62	54% 17179-14402 (31581)
ComingBackCTR	Overavg 47¢	$4.7K	$4.9K	+$201.15	61% 3944-2470 (6414)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Overavg 45.7¢	$59.03	$61.34	+$2.31	58% 28818-21252 (50070)
RollAwayTheDew<$100	Underavg 55¢	$55	$51	-$4	53% 404-355 (759)
FO Forecastication2CTR<$100	Overavg 46¢	$5.06	$4.73	-$0.06	50% 7037-7035 (14072)
GH ghorrock<$100	Underavg 52¢	$3.25	$3.19	-$0.06	57% 13877-10647 (24524)

HomeRunHazard

Under

Invested

$5,814.7

Value

$6.2K

PnL

+$422.62

Record

54%

17179-14402 (31581)

ComingBackCTR

Over

Invested

$4,727

Value

$4.9K

PnL

+$201.15

Record

61%

3944-2470 (6414)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$59.03

Value

$61.34

PnL

+$2.31

Record

58%

28818-21252 (50070)

RollAwayTheDew<$100

Under

Invested

$55

Value

$51

PnL

-$4

Record

53%

404-355 (759)

Forecastication2CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$5.06

Value

$4.73

PnL

-$0.06

Record

50%

7037-7035 (14072)

ghorrock<$100

Under

Invested

$3.25

Value

$3.19

PnL

-$0.06

Record

57%

13877-10647 (24524)

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 58%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Under

3 of 6 top traders (50%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance60.2%

58.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$66.09

Max Loss

-$100.00

166.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.