Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (78%). 9 of 10 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Hawks vs. Pelicans: O/U 240.5

9 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Over (90%) · Over at 23¢ · $37K held · ended Oct 31

Over23¢Under77¢Ended Sat, Oct 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 90%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$36.9K

Combined PnL

$-3.9K

Smart Money Entry

47.7¢ → 22.5¢

-53% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

AvoidOver at 23%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

9 of 10 top traders (90%)Underdog side (market favors Under 78%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over23%

Under78%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over9 traders

Total Value$10.3K

Total Shares38,748

Combined PnL$-3.9K

Under1 trader

Total Value$31.51

Total Shares40

Combined PnL-$2.4

Over — 90%Under — 10%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 70%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

100% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 70% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleOver 100% · 3

Aligned

sharpOver 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrOver 100% · 8

Aligned

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Over 100% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazardARB<$100	Overavg 48.1¢	$32.9K	$23.5K	$-11.7K	54% 17200-14430 (31630)
└ Over leg	Overavg 48.1¢	$26.8K	$14.8K	$-12.0K
└ Under leg	Underavg 51¢	$6.0K	$8.7K	+$299.17
HI hi774cCTR	Overavg 48.2¢	$5.2K	$4.9K	-$314.08	52% 4749-4468 (9217)
0X 0xfB07F48542d2b655e9D0Bf1cC92a8a6Feee8e2cC-1782415802542CTR	Overavg 47¢	$7.0K	$4.0K	$-3.1K	47% 2536-2833 (5369)
HE HerdoniaARB<$100	Overavg 47.7¢	$4.5K	$3.0K	$-1.5K	54% 3362-2907 (6269)
└ Over leg	Overavg 47.7¢	$3.9K	$2.2K	$-1.7K
└ Under leg	Underavg 51.5¢	$551.52	$786.62	+$235.1
0X 0xd4aa6f8e91cfea29b66a48ebff52814CTR	Overavg 47¢	$882.9	$866.55	-$16.35	46% 205-236 (441)
RollAwayTheDewCTR	Overavg 49¢	$672.91	$363.92	-$308.99	53% 407-358 (765)
LE LeLynxMalynxARB<$100	Underavg 50¢	$133.99	$143.92	+$9.94	58% 28900-21323 (50223)
└ Under leg	Underavg 50¢	$76.94	$113.18	+$36.25
└ Over leg	Overavg 49.2¢	$57.05	$30.74	-$26.31
VeryLucky888CTR	Overavg 47.8¢	$1.1K	$66.26	-$59.78	58% 42202-30652 (72854)
SL slimjoeCTR	Overavg 48¢	$111.84	$61.75	-$50.1	51% 6510-6169 (12679)
HRTrading<$100	Underavg 76¢	$33.9	$31.51	-$2.4	53% 5014-4502 (9516)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Overavg 47.6¢	$58	$25.83	-$20.47	57% 13944-10725 (24669)
NA NatoAlfistaCTR<$100	Overavg 47¢	$22.56	$12.72	-$9.84	50% 3891-3854 (7745)
0xheavy888CTR<$100	Overavg 47.7¢	$8.3	$7.95	-$0.35	55% 7193-5787 (12980)

HomeRunHazardARB<$100

Over

Invested

$32,864.14

Value

$23.5K

PnL

$-11.7K

Record

54%

17200-14430 (31630)

Both legs:

Over$26,826.748.1¢$-12.0K

Under$6,037.4351¢+$299.17

hi774cCTR

Over

Invested

$5,202.26

Value

$4.9K

PnL

-$314.08

Record

52%

4749-4468 (9217)

0xfB07F48542d2b655e9D0Bf1cC92a8a6Feee8e2cC-1782415802542CTR

Over

Invested

$7,050

Value

$4.0K

PnL

$-3.1K

Record

47%

2536-2833 (5369)

HerdoniaARB<$100

Over

Invested

$4,481.72

Value

$3.0K

PnL

$-1.5K

Record

54%

3362-2907 (6269)

Both legs:

Over$3,930.247.7¢$-1.7K

Under$551.5251.5¢+$235.1

0xd4aa6f8e91cfea29b66a48ebff52814CTR

Over

Invested

$882.9

Value

$866.55

PnL

-$16.35

Record

46%

205-236 (441)

RollAwayTheDewCTR

Over

Invested

$672.91

Value

$363.92

PnL

-$308.99

Record

53%

407-358 (765)

LeLynxMalynxARB<$100

Under

Invested

$133.99

Value

$143.92

PnL

+$9.94

Record

58%

28900-21323 (50223)

Both legs:

Under$76.9450¢+$36.25

Over$57.0549.2¢-$26.31

VeryLucky888CTR

Over

Invested

$1,149.45

Value

$66.26

PnL

-$59.78

Record

58%

42202-30652 (72854)

slimjoeCTR

Over

Invested

$111.84

Value

$61.75

PnL

-$50.1

Record

51%

6510-6169 (12679)

HRTrading<$100

Under

Invested

$33.9

Value

$31.51

PnL

-$2.4

Record

53%

5014-4502 (9516)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$58

Value

$25.83

PnL

-$20.47

Record

57%

13944-10725 (24669)

NatoAlfistaCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$22.56

Value

$12.72

PnL

-$9.84

Record

50%

3891-3854 (7745)

0xheavy888CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$8.3

Value

$7.95

PnL

-$0.35

Record

55%

7193-5787 (12980)

Research grade

AvoidOver at 23%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

Smart Money Signal

Over

9 of 10 top traders (90%)Underdog side (market favors Under 78%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 70%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

100% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 70% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleOver 100% · 3

Aligned

sharpOver 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrOver 100% · 8

Aligned

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Over 100% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance24.4%

22.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$309.85

Max Loss

-$100.00

409.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.