Hawks vs. Pelicans: O/U 239.5
6 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Over (100%) · Over at 52¢ · $16K held · ends Oct 31
⚠️
Avoid
Over
6
Over 100%
$15.6K
-$50.18
52.7¢ → 51.5¢
-2% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
AvoidOver at 52%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 6 top traders (100%)4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
6 traders
Top 2 hold 99%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
MO monkeymashingkeyboard | Overavg 53¢ | $10.6K | $10.3K | -$100 | 54% 604-520 (1124) |
HO HomeRunHazard | Overavg 52¢ | $5.3K | $5.2K | +$50.94 | 54% 17179-14402 (31581) |
AN AnonymousUsername<$100 | Overavg 52¢ | $70.72 | $70.04 | -$0.68 | 74% 6674-2397 (9071) |
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100 | Overavg 52¢ | $18.2 | $18.03 | -$0.18 | 58% 28707-21186 (49893) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Overavg 52.5¢ | $15.75 | $15.45 | -$0.3 | 57% 13809-10582 (24391) |
0X 0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989<$100 | Overavg 51¢ | $4.08 | $4.12 | +$0.04 | 53% 5632-4972 (10604) |
Invested
$10,600
Value
$10.3K
PnL
-$100
Record
54%
604-520 (1124)
Invested
$5,286.61
Value
$5.2K
PnL
+$50.94
Record
54%
17179-14402 (31581)
Invested
$70.72
Value
$70.04
PnL
-$0.68
Record
74%
6674-2397 (9071)
Invested
$18.2
Value
$18.03
PnL
-$0.18
Record
58%
28707-21186 (49893)
Invested
$15.75
Value
$15.45
PnL
-$0.3
Record
57%
13809-10582 (24391)
Invested
$4.08
Value
$4.12
PnL
+$0.04
Record
53%
5632-4972 (10604)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
51.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.