Hawks vs. Pelicans: O/U 238.5
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Over (80%) · Over at 54¢ · $5K held · ends Oct 31
⚠️
Avoid
Over
5
Over 80%
1 arb excluded
$5.4K
$44.9
54¢ → 53.5¢
-1% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
AvoidOver at 54%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
75% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HO HomeRunHazard | Overavg 54¢ | $5.3K | $5.2K | +$45.91 | 54% 17179-14402 (31581) |
 VeryLucky888 | Overavg 54¢ | $135 | $133.75 | -$1.25 | 58% 41929-30449 (72378) |
LE LeLynxMalynxARB<$100 | Underavg 45.5¢ | $55.41 | $55.84 | -$0.56 | 58% 28707-21186 (49893) |
| └ Under leg | Underavg 45.5¢ | $30.03 | $30.69 | -$0.33 | |
| └ Over leg | Overavg 54¢ | $25.38 | $25.15 | -$0.23 | |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Overavg 54¢ | $9.31 | $9.22 | -$0.09 | 57% 13809-10582 (24391) |
 0xheavy888CTR<$100 | Underavg 44¢ | $8.8 | $9.1 | +$0.3 | 55% 7125-5714 (12839) |
0X 0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989<$100 | Overavg 53¢ | $2.82 | $2.85 | +$0.03 | 53% 5632-4972 (10604) |
Invested
$5,279.55
Value
$5.2K
PnL
+$45.91
Record
54%
17179-14402 (31581)
VeryLucky888Invested
$135
Value
$133.75
PnL
-$1.25
Record
58%
41929-30449 (72378)
Invested
$55.41
Value
$55.84
PnL
-$0.56
Record
58%
28707-21186 (49893)
Both legs:
Invested
$9.31
Value
$9.22
PnL
-$0.09
Record
57%
13809-10582 (24391)
0xheavy888CTR<$100Invested
$8.8
Value
$9.1
PnL
+$0.3
Record
55%
7125-5714 (12839)
Invested
$2.82
Value
$2.85
PnL
+$0.03
Record
53%
5632-4972 (10604)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
53.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.