Hawks vs. Pelicans: O/U 236.5

3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Under (60%) · Under at 74¢ · $154 held · ended Oct 31

Over26¢Under74¢Ended Sat, Oct 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 60%

Total Value

$154.04

Combined PnL

$30.7

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 74%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over26%

Under74%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over2 traders

Total Value$130.83

Total Shares178

Combined PnL+$36.45

Under3 traders

Total Value$23.21

Total Shares63

Combined PnL-$5.75

Over — 40%Under — 60%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
JU justaluckydudeCTR<$100	Overavg 51¢	$60.18	$86.73	+$26.55	53% 10816-9436 (20252)
RollAwayTheDewCTR<$100	Overavg 57¢	$34.2	$44.1	+$9.9	53% 407-358 (765)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Underavg 43¢	$18.86	$11.62	-$7.24	58% 28900-21323 (50223)
HRTrading<$100	Underavg 62¢	$6.76	$9.37	+$2.61	53% 5014-4502 (9516)
GH ghorrock<$100	Underavg 40¢	$3.33	$2.21	-$1.13	57% 13944-10725 (24669)

justaluckydudeCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$60.18

Value

$86.73

PnL

+$26.55

Record

53%

10816-9436 (20252)

RollAwayTheDewCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$34.2

Value

$44.1

PnL

+$9.9

Record

53%

407-358 (765)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Under

Invested

$18.86

Value

$11.62

PnL

-$7.24

Record

58%

28900-21323 (50223)

HRTrading<$100

Under

Invested

$6.76

Value

$9.37

PnL

+$2.61

Record

53%

5014-4502 (9516)

ghorrock<$100

Under

Invested

$3.33

Value

$2.21

PnL

-$1.13

Record

57%

13944-10725 (24669)

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 74%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Under

3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance75.9%

74.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$31.69

Max Loss

-$100.00

131.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.