Spread: Pelicans (-3.5)
2 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold Pelicans (67%) · Pelicans at 79¢ · $2K held · ended Oct 31
⚠️
Avoid
Pelicans
3
Pelicans 67%
2 arb excluded
$2.2K
$316.03
56.1¢ → 78.5¢
+40% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
AvoidPelicans at 79%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 3 top traders (67%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
UP UpTheBlues | Pelicansavg 55.8¢ | $735.05 | $1.0K | +$299.66 | 59% 46230-32531 (78761) |
TA takeormakeARB<$100 | Hawksavg 39.2¢ | $1.3K | $931.06 | -$336.51 | 54% 4151-3604 (7755) |
| └ Hawks leg | Hawksavg 39.2¢ | $977.67 | $536.21 | -$441.46 | |
| └ Pelicans leg | Pelicansavg 57.6¢ | $289.9 | $394.85 | +$104.95 | |
JU justaluckydudeARB<$100 | Hawksavg 53.5¢ | $125.97 | $118.72 | -$7.25 | 53% 10816-9436 (20252) |
| └ Hawks leg | Hawksavg 53.5¢ | $75.99 | $66.78 | -$9.21 | |
| └ Pelicans leg | Pelicansavg 51¢ | $49.98 | $51.94 | +$1.96 | |
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100 | Hawksavg 53¢ | $69.72 | $86.29 | +$16.57 | 48% 959-1040 (1999) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Pelicansavg 65.4¢ | $35.28 | $35.09 | -$0.2 | 53% 5014-4502 (9516) |
Invested
$735.05
Value
$1.0K
PnL
+$299.66
Record
59%
46230-32531 (78761)
Invested
$1,267.57
Value
$931.06
PnL
-$336.51
Record
54%
4151-3604 (7755)
Both legs:
Invested
$125.97
Value
$118.72
PnL
-$7.25
Record
53%
10816-9436 (20252)
Both legs:
Invested
$69.72
Value
$86.29
PnL
+$16.57
Record
48%
959-1040 (1999)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$35.28
Value
$35.09
PnL
-$0.2
Record
53%
5014-4502 (9516)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
78.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.