Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Hawks, while the market favors Pelicans (85%). 7 of 12 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Spread: Hawks (-5.5)

7 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Hawks (58%) · Hawks at 16¢ · $8K held · ended Oct 31

Hawks16¢Pelicans84¢Ended Sat, Oct 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Hawks

Consensus Traders

Hawks 58%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$8.4K

Combined PnL

$-7.4K

Smart Money Entry

48¢ → 15.5¢

-68% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

AvoidHawks at 16%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Hawks

7 of 12 top traders (58%)Underdog side (market favors Pelicans 85%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Hawks16%

Pelicans85%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Hawks7 traders

Total Value$6.0K

Total Shares28,943

Combined PnL$-7.9K

Pelicans5 traders

Total Value$1.6K

Total Shares1,948

Combined PnL+$500.94

Hawks — 58%Pelicans — 42%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 84%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

86% of non-arb traders are on Hawks. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 84% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleHawks 50% · 2

Aligned

sharpPelicans 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrHawks 83% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedHawks 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Hawks 86% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
PP ppku6298CTR	Hawksavg 48¢	$10.0K	$4.3K	$-5.7K	45% 91-112 (203)
HO HomeRunHazardARB<$100	Pelicansavg 52.1¢	$784.01	$804.32	+$20.31	54% 17200-14430 (31630)
└ Pelicans leg	Pelicansavg 52.1¢	$421.33	$642.76	+$221.42
└ Hawks leg	Hawksavg 46¢	$362.67	$161.56	-$201.12
HE Herdonia	Pelicansavg 52¢	$486.36	$743.56	+$257.21	54% 3362-2907 (6269)
AY ay118CTR	Hawksavg 48¢	$1.7K	$734.58	-$985.42	51% 25-24 (49)
RegardedMoneyCTR	Hawksavg 48¢	$1.4K	$615	-$825	59% 889-628 (1517)
RN1	Pelicansavg 52.7¢	$395	$596.25	+$201.25	54% 56824-49050 (105874)
SU SunlineTickerCTR	Hawksavg 48¢	$491.92	$210.09	-$281.83	62% 4162-2553 (6715)
TA takeormake	Pelicansavg 53¢	$122.61	$153.02	+$30.41	54% 4151-3604 (7755)
0X 0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989CTR	Hawksavg 44.8¢	$110.67	$118.6	+$6.7	53% 5653-4991 (10644)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Pelicansavg 53.4¢	$60.36	$69.44	+$9.08	58% 28900-21323 (50223)
NA NatoAlfistaCTR	Hawksavg 48¢	$120.24	$51.35	-$68.89	50% 3891-3854 (7745)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080<$100	Pelicansavg 53¢	$5.3	$8.3	+$3	51% 1486-1430 (2916)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Hawksavg 34¢	$1.38	$0.98	-$0.4	53% 5014-4502 (9516)

ppku6298CTR

Hawks

Invested

$10,000

Value

$4.3K

PnL

$-5.7K

Record

45%

91-112 (203)

HomeRunHazardARB<$100

Pelicans

Invested

$784.01

Value

$804.32

PnL

+$20.31

Record

54%

17200-14430 (31630)

Both legs:

Pelicans$421.3352.1¢+$221.42

Hawks$362.6746¢-$201.12

Herdonia

Pelicans

Invested

$486.36

Value

$743.56

PnL

+$257.21

Record

54%

3362-2907 (6269)

ay118CTR

Hawks

Invested

$1,720

Value

$734.58

PnL

-$985.42

Record

51%

25-24 (49)

RegardedMoneyCTR

Hawks

Invested

$1,440

Value

$615

PnL

-$825

Record

59%

889-628 (1517)

RN1

Pelicans

Invested

$395

Value

$596.25

PnL

+$201.25

Record

54%

56824-49050 (105874)

SunlineTickerCTR

Hawks

Invested

$491.92

Value

$210.09

PnL

-$281.83

Record

62%

4162-2553 (6715)

takeormake

Pelicans

Invested

$122.61

Value

$153.02

PnL

+$30.41

Record

54%

4151-3604 (7755)

0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989CTR

Hawks

Invested

$110.67

Value

$118.6

PnL

+$6.7

Record

53%

5653-4991 (10644)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Pelicans

Invested

$60.36

Value

$69.44

PnL

+$9.08

Record

58%

28900-21323 (50223)

NatoAlfistaCTR

Hawks

Invested

$120.24

Value

$51.35

PnL

-$68.89

Record

50%

3891-3854 (7745)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080<$100

Pelicans

Invested

$5.3

Value

$8.3

PnL

+$3

Record

51%

1486-1430 (2916)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Hawks

Invested

$1.38

Value

$0.98

PnL

-$0.4

Record

53%

5014-4502 (9516)

Research grade

AvoidHawks at 16%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Hawks

7 of 12 top traders (58%)Underdog side (market favors Pelicans 85%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 84%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

86% of non-arb traders are on Hawks. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 84% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleHawks 50% · 2

Aligned

sharpPelicans 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrHawks 83% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedHawks 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Hawks 86% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Hawks wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance17.2%

15.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$481.77

Max Loss

-$100.00

581.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.