Spread: Hawks (-3.5)

2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Hawks (40%) · Hawks at 55¢ · $12K held · ends Oct 31

Hawks55¢Pelicans45¢Ends Sat, Oct 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Hawks

Consensus Traders

Hawks 40%

Total Value

$12.5K

Combined PnL

$90.7

Smart Money Entry

53¢ → 54.5¢

+3% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

AvoidHawks at 55%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Hawks

2 of 5 top traders (40%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Hawks55%

Pelicans46%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Hawks2 traders

Total Value$10.9K

Total Shares20,269

Combined PnL+$101.71

Pelicans3 traders

Total Value$1.6K

Total Shares3,368

Combined PnL-$11

Hawks — 40%Pelicans — 60%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
MO monkeymashingkeyboard	Hawksavg 53¢	$10.6K	$10.7K	+$100	54% 604-520 (1124)
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	Pelicansavg 46.9¢	$1.4K	$1.4K	-$12.35	54% 17179-14402 (31581)
HE Herdonia	Hawksavg 53¢	$175.94	$177.65	+$1.71	54% 3357-2905 (6262)
SU SunlineTickerCTR	Pelicansavg 45¢	$132.14	$133.6	+$1.47	62% 4161-2553 (6714)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Pelicansavg 46.5¢	$43.21	$43.09	-$0.12	58% 28788-21225 (50013)

monkeymashingkeyboard

Hawks

Invested

$10,599.96

Value

$10.7K

PnL

+$100

Record

54%

604-520 (1124)

HomeRunHazardCTR

Pelicans

Invested

$1,408.3

Value

$1.4K

PnL

-$12.35

Record

54%

17179-14402 (31581)

Herdonia

Hawks

Invested

$175.94

Value

$177.65

PnL

+$1.71

Record

54%

3357-2905 (6262)

SunlineTickerCTR

Pelicans

Invested

$132.14

Value

$133.6

PnL

+$1.47

Record

62%

4161-2553 (6714)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Pelicans

Invested

$43.21

Value

$43.09

PnL

-$0.12

Record

58%

28788-21225 (50013)

Research grade

AvoidHawks at 55%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Hawks

2 of 5 top traders (40%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Hawks wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance56.7%

54.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$76.26

Max Loss

-$100.00

176.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.